ICE weekly outlook: Market watching weather, acres, trade

CNS Canada — Canola futures bounced around within a rather narrow range during the week ended Wednesday, but generally trended higher as the market recovered off of the four-month lows hit on June 19.

Statistics Canada releases updated acreage estimates on Friday, and any surprises in the data could provide some nearby direction. The U.S. Department of Agriculture releases its own acreage and quarterly stocks data on the same day.

However, weather conditions and international trade tensions are more likely to influence the canola market heading into the summer months.

“We’re at the whims of the next tweet or updated weather forecast,” said Mike Jubinville of ProFarmer Canada in Winnipeg.

While some areas were too wet and others too dry, the North American growing season was generally off to a good start and had most agricultural markets looking oversold, he said.

Without some fix to the trade uncertainties between the U.S. and China or a major weather scare, “the seasonal tendencies point lower going into July,” said Jubinville.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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