ICE weekly outlook: Canola futures at two-year highs

ICE November 2020 canola with 20-, 50- and 100-day moving averages. (Barchart)

MarketsFarm — ICE Futures canola contracts climbed to their strongest levels in two years during the week ended Wednesday, but could be nearing their highs for the time being as harvest pressure should start weighing on values.

“We’re running into the top end on the monthly and weekly charts,” said Jamie Wilton, senior commodity futures specialist with RJ O’Brien in Winnipeg.

The November contract settled Wednesday at $530.20 per tonne, while some of the more deferred positions topped $540.

Looking at the charts, Wilton said the $530 per tonne level has been a “tough level of resistance” for a number of years.

With harvest operations picking up over the next few weeks, “I think there will be enough supply around, which should put a halt on the uptrend at some point,” he said.

However, he added, solid demand on the other side will remain supportive and temper any correction lower.

In addition to harvest conditions in both Canada and the U.S., Wilton said South American weather may also provide some direction for futures, with Brazil on the dry side as its soybean growing season gets underway.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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