ICE weekly outlook: Attention turns to new-crop canola

'Somebody's feet will be held to the fire'

ICE November 2021 canola (candlesticks) with 20-day moving average (green line) and July 2021 canola (yellow open/high/low/close). (Barchart)

MarketsFarm — Wide price swings in the nearby ICE Futures July canola contract over the past few weeks have sent most commercial trade into the new-crop November, with direction in the front month hard to predict given recent volatility.

“Where (July canola) finally goes off the board, I have no idea, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we set a new record yet on that one,” MarketsFarm Pro analyst Mike Jubinville said, adding that “somebody’s feet will be held to the fire.”

Speculative money still has the potential to move the July contract, with every profit-taking correction in the past eventually leading to another leg higher.

Meanwhile, domestic crushers and other end-users are basing most of their cash contracts off the November futures, for both old- and new-crop delivery.

With the growing season just getting underway, weather conditions will play a key role in dictating market direction going forward.

“Corrections can come at anytime, but I don’t think we can get bearish on the oilseed markets,” said Jubinville.

In addition to the general dryness across Western Canada, he pointed to tight supplies, solid demand, and the emerging biofuel industry as underlying supportive influences.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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