Glacier FarmMedia MarketsFarm — To Errol Andersson of Errol’s Commodity Wire in Calgary, there’s little doubt the Trump administration will press ahead with tariffs on Canada and Mexico.
United States President Donald Trump made it clear during the week of Feb. 24 that he will impose 25 per cent tariffs on most goods the U.S. imports from its next-door neighbours effective March 4. However, energy imports are to be levied at 10 per cent.
“I’m not a believer that Trump’s tariffs are long-lasting,” Anderson stated, noting they will adversely impact the U.S. economy.
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“There are too many problems with these tariffs to be long-lasting,” he added, pointing to the stock and the cryptocurrency markets which he said are Trump’s main gauge of his policies.
“If they break, that’s really going to change the tone on tariffs,” Anderson said, suggesting there are already signs of the cryptocurrencies beginning to crack.
There’s little doubt that Canada’s canola exports will be caught up in U.S. tariffs. While the U.S. is not a major foreign customer of canola seed from Canada, it’s the top importer of the oil and the meal.
Anderson said that once the tariff issues are resolved, canola will very likely have its spring rally. Also, he said the Canadian dollar could increase to as high as 72 U.S. cents in the aftermath.
He cautioned there will be pressure on canola coming from Chicago soybeans, in that Brazil is having a record harvest. Also the weaker Brazil real compared to the U.S. dollar could make the former’s soybeans more palatable.
