MarketsFarm — Dry weather across the Canadian Prairies may be cutting into barley production prospects, keeping domestic feed prices underpinned for the time being despite the likelihood of large corn imports from the United States.
Alberta’s barley crop was only rated 43 per cent good to excellent in the latest weekly report, well off the 75 per cent reading in mid-July a year ago. The situation was similar in Saskatchewan, with just under half of the province’s barley hitting the good to excellent category as of July 10.
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Varied precipitation and warm temperatures were generally beneficial for crop development across Alberta during the week ended July 8, according to the latest provincial crop report released July 11.
Seeded barley area in Canada was up on the year, but the poor yield prospects will likely cut into available supplies.
“Reduced yields and a smaller barley crop will force reductions in Canadian exports and domestic feed use as imported corn increases its presence in Western Canada again,” Leftfield Commodity Research said in a report compiled for the Manitoba Crop Alliance.
Canada is already booking corn for delivery in the 2023-24 marketing year, with 55,400 tonnes of new-crop U.S. corn sales to Canada in the latest weekly U.S. Department of Agriculture report bringing total new crop bookings to 298,400 tonnes. Canada has imported 496,300 tonnes of U.S. corn in the current marketing year-to-date, with 159,700 tonnes still outstanding for movement by the end of August.
U.S. corn plantings were estimated at a record 94.1 million acres by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, although there is still a long growing season ahead. “Corn prices are trading lower in response to larger estimated U.S. supplies, but weather over the coming weeks will be important,” Leftfield said in its report.
Feed barley prices in Alberta are currently trading at anywhere from $7 to $9.41 per bushel in Alberta, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire data. The bids top out at $7.50 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
While corn imports from the U.S. had been trading at a discount to barley in southern Alberta, strength in U.S. corn futures over the past week likely brought landed-corn prices more in line with barley. However, there were no reports of any fresh corn business taking place at the higher price levels.
— Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.
