MarketsFarm — Dry weather conditions across Western Canada could cut into production prospects in the region, according to updated supply/demand tables released Thursday by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

“Extremely dry conditions prevail in large parts of Western Canada, allowing for rapid seeding progress which is trending ahead of normal; however, timely precipitation this spring and throughout the growing season will be needed to achieve trend yields,” AAFC said in the report.

Using trend-line yields and the Statistics Canada acreage estimates from April 27, Canada is forecast to grow 31.06 million tonnes of wheat in 2021-22, down from 35.19 million grown the previous year. The early forecast for canola production pegs the crop at 20.05 million tonnes, which would be up from the 18.72 million grown in 2020-21.

Canola ending stocks for the current marketing year were left unchanged at 700,000 tonnes, with the new crop carryout upped by 50,000 tonnes, to 750,000 — well below the 3.13 million-tonne carryout from 2019-20.

Total wheat carryout for 2020-21 was lowered to 4.75 million tonnes, from 5.31 million tonnes in April. New-crop wheat ending stocks were estimated at 5.05 million tonnes.

“In general, grain prices in Canada are forecast to stay relatively strong on robust international demand,” AAFC said.

Tables: May estimates for Canadian major crops’ supply and demand: in millions of metric tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.