MarketsFarm — There will likely be some minor tweaks to the November supply and demand report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Thursday. USDA is set to publish its world agriculture supply and demand estimates (WASDE) at 11 a.m. CT.
“I would say the [U.S.] corn production estimates are very likely to hold steady, plus or minus a little bit one way or the other,” Dr. Michael Cordonnier of Soybean and Corn Advisor Inc. in Hinsdale, Ill. said.
“Some predict corn yields might go up a little bit. I’m not in that camp. If I had to choose one way or the other, I think I’d say it might go down a little.”
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Cordonnier pointed out that corn yields throughout much of the U.S. eastern Corn Belt have been very good this year but were not as abundant in the western half.
Reports placed the average trade guess on U.S. corn yields for 2023-24 at 173.2 bushels per acre, up from the October WASDE’s 173. That would see from last month’s 2.11 billion bushels rise to 2.13 billion.
Internationally, Cordonnier stated “corn is going to be an issue in Brazil,” as the planting of the country’s second crop, called safrinha, remained well behind schedule due to delays in soybean planting. Also, he pointed to weaker corn prices and reduced fertilizer sales in the country.
In October, USDA forecast Brazil’s total corn output at 129 million tonnes. For Thursday, the trade projected that to fall to 127.6 million tonnes.
As for Argentina, USDA placed its corn production at 55 million tonnes, with the trade estimating the November number will be 54.5 million.
Globally, USDA pegged corn production at 312 million tonnes last month, with the trade putting November’s number between 307 million and 315 million.
While the average trade guess projected 2023-24 U.S. soybean yields to remain at USDA’s October estimate of 49.6 bushels per acre, Cordonnier said he believes those yields will come down a little, placing his call at 49.3.
The trade pegged soybean ending stocks to nudge up to 222 million bushels from October’s 220 million.
For Brazil, USDA notched the country to reap a record 163 million tonnes, but dry conditions in the north and wet conditions in the south have slowed down planting progress. With that in mind, the trade projected a small reduction at this time to 162.5 million tonnes.
As for Argentina, soybean production was set at 48 million tonnes in USDA’s October report. The trade nudged up that figure to 48.2 million tonnes. Cordonnier said the country was continuing to endure a long drought, but recent rains brought some much-needed optimism.
USDA estimated world soybean production in October at 115.6 million tonnes, with the trade foreseeing the November number at 114 million to 118 million.
As for U.S. wheat in 2023-24, the trade has anticipated yields to remain at 48.6 bu./ac. while the carryover dips from 670 million bushels to 669 million.
Last month, USDA put the world wheat carryover of 258.1 million tonnes. For this month, the trade said it should be trimmed to 257.8 million.
— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.
