Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm — Demand will be the main thing to watch when the United States Department of Agriculture releases its May supply and demand report next week.
With the Trump administration imposing tariffs and numerous countries setting retaliatory measures, foreign demand for U.S. soybeans and corn could shift, said Steve Georgy, president of Allendale Inc. in McHenry, Ill.
“There could be a bearish surprise,” Georgy said of the S/D report that is scheduled to be released May 12 at 11 a.m. CDT.
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“It’s how the markets will react,” he added, suggesting corn could take the brunt of any declines in overseas demand.
The USDA will go with its most recent projections for exports as well as planted acres and yields. For 2024/25 exports, the USDA currently stands at:
• Soybeans at 1.83 billion bushels, up from 1.70 billion in 2023/24
• Corn at 2.55 billion bushels, compared to 2.45 billion
• Total wheat at 820 million bushels, down from 835 million.
The department forecast 2025/26 planted acres:
• Soybeans at 84 million, down from 87.1 million in 24/25
• Corn is to increase to 94 million from 90.6 million
• Total wheat is to bump up to 47 million from 46.1 million.
For yields, it came to:
• 52.5 bushels per acre for soybeans, up from 50.7 last year
• 181 bu./ac. for corn, down from 179.3
• 50.1 bu./ac. for total wheat, down from 51.2
Georgy said there could be some changes for soybeans planted. With sowing at 30 per cent complete, it’s 12 points up compared to this time last year and seven ahead of the five-year average.
That could lead to more soybean acres seeded at the expense of corn, he said. More so with corn planted at 40 per cent, only one point ahead of its average pace. However, seeding is 16 ahead of a year ago.
Georgy said he doesn’t expect the USDA to make any major changes to its wheat data.
