Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm — With Brazil’s planted and harvest soybean area to expand by 900,000 hectares in 2026, the United States Department of Agriculture attaché in Brasilia forecast production to increase 3.50 million tonnes at record 173 million.
The attaché estimated next year’s planted/harvest soybean area to be 48.20 million hectares while yields are to inch up to 3.59 tonnes per hectare. The report said the soybean area has expanded by 20 per cent over the last five years, most notably in Brazil’s north and northeast regions.
Record exports as well
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The Brasilia desk raised its call on 2025/26 soybean exports to a record 112 million tonnes from 108.30 million this year. Total domestic consumption is to come to 61.38 million, versus 60.65 million in 2024/25. That included the soybean crush rising 450,000 tonnes at 57 million. Ending stocks are to decrease by 230,000 tonnes at 4.70 million.
“This is due to strong international demand, less production in other producing countries and the expected increase in (Brazil’s) biofuel mandate,” the attaché wrote.
China is by far Brazil’s top soybean export customer, accounting for 72.5 per cent of the 2024 exports, followed by the European Union at 14 per cent.
Soyoil, soymeal production up
Based on the above crush estimate, the attaché projected soyoil production in 2025/26 to reach 11.40 million tonnes, up by 900,000. Of that, exports are to increase of 50,000 tonnes at 1.55 million tonnes. Total domestic consumption is to top 10.10 million tonnes, up from 9.85 million. The carryover is to contract by 210,000 tonnes at 340,000.
Brazilian soymeal output for 2025/26 is to nudge up by 345,000 tonnes at 43.89 million, with the attaché expecting exports to increase 1.20 million tonnes at 23.20 million tonnes. With total domestic consumption to increase 300,000 tonnes at 21.80 million, ending stocks are to drop by almost 1.11 million tonnes at 1.36 million.
The attaché placed Brazil’s total 2025/26 oilseed production at about 193 million tonnes, with soybeans accounting for the lion’s share. The rest is comprised of cottonseed, palm oil and peanuts.