AAFC lowers wheat carryout estimate, raises canola

Wheat being loaded onto a cargo ship in Vancouver in 2011. (File photo: Reuters/Ben Nelms)

MarketsFarm — Updated supply and demand estimates from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada call for tighter wheat carryout for the 2020-21 crop year than previous forecast — and more canola.

Tursday’s report provides the first adjusted balance sheet estimates from the government agency that account for the latest production numbers from Statistics Canada released earlier in the month.

All-wheat ending stocks for the 2020-21 marketing year are now forecast at 5.9 million tonnes, down from the August estimate of 6.7 million. The total wheat carryout would still be above the 2019-20 level of 5.027 million.

Of the total, 2020-21 durum ending stocks are forecast at 700,000 tonnes. That would be in line with the 660,000-tonne carryover from the previous year, but down from the August forecast of 1.2 million.

Canola ending stocks for 2020-21 were estimated at 2.2 million tonnes. That would be up by roughly 650,000 tonnes from the August estimate, as increases in production and carry-in from the previous year more than make up for expectations for increased exports and domestic usage.



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