Canola and barley output in Canada during the 2010-11 crop year will be larger than expected based on the production survey released by Statistics Canada Aug. 20, industry sources said. “The numbers released are very realistic but with the good weather across the Canadian Prairies since the survey was conducted, one can suggest that output will actually be higher still,” Ron Frost with Agri-Trend Marketing Inc. and an analyst with the Frost Forecasting Corp. of Calgary said.
He acknowledged the Statistics Canada’s canola figure of 10.867 million tonnes was already at the high end of pre-report projections, but when the good weather over the past three or four weeks is factored in canola production could easily be over 11 million tonnes. In 2009-10, Canadian canola production was 11.825 million.
“There will definitely need to be a close examination of
the acreage base used and a better definition of what constitutes washed-out yields,” said Ken Ball, a broker with Union Securities Ltd.
Statistics Canada pegged Canada’s 2010-11 barley production at 8.488 million tonnes. In 2009-10, Canada harvested a 9.5-million-tonne barley crop.
Mike Jubinville, an analyst with ProFarmer Canada said the high barley estimate wasn’t as surpr ising as it
should be and depending on how aggressive the domestic sector wants barley and if the Canadian Wheat Board decides to push sales on the international market, the extra output will be easily absorbed.
“With the global drought problems, barley on the world market is in short supply and that is being reflected back in the sharp jump in international barley values,” he said. The domestic barley market in Canada has not matched the jump in global barley values, but there should be some spillover benefit, Jubinville said.
Statistics Canada pegged Canada’s 2010-11 oats crop at 2.392 million tonnes. Production in 2009-10 totalled 2.798 million tonnes. “Even with the oats crop in Canada likely to be revised higher in future survey updates, that will still present a tight scenario for end-users in the longer term,” Jubinville said.
All wheat output in Canada in 2010-11 was forecast by Statistics Canada at 22.659 million tonnes. All-wheat output in Canada in 2009- 10 totalled 26.515 million tonnes. The actual all-wheat production figure was also likely to be raised given the improved weather conditions across Western Canada over the past number of weeks, Ball said.
Part of the jump in the all-wheat figure was linked to durum output coming in at the high end of pre-report ideas, Jubinville said. Canadian 2010-11 durum output was pegged at 3.122 million tonnes. In 2009-10, Canadian durum output totalled 5.399 million tonnes.
Pea output in Canada was pegged at 3.1 million tonnes. Output of peas in 2009-10 totalled 3.379 million tonnes. Canada’s flaxseed production in 2010-11 was placed at 570,000 tonnes. In 2009-10 flax production was 930,000 tonnes.
“Withtheglobaldroughtproblems,barley ontheworldmarketisinshortsupplyand thatisbeingreflectedbackinthesharp jumpininternationalbarleyvalues.”
– MI KE JUBINVILLE