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Production Down: No Surprise

Grain and oilseed production estimates in the latest crop production survey from Statistics Canada for the period ended Sept. 9 held few surprises, according to industry sources.

“Some of the production estimates were a bit smaller than had been anticipated, and that was the only real surprise,” said Ron Frost with Agri-Trend Marketing Inc. and an analyst with the Frost Forecast Consulting, of Calgary, Alberta.

He said the industry expected the production estimates in the survey would have been a bit higher in this report given that the survey was conducted before the harvest in Western Canada had gotten underway and before the major frost event occurred.

Keith Ferley, a commodity trader with RBC Dominion Securities said the bigger issue will now be quality. Both Frost and Ferley felt the StatsCan numbers will also be well overshadowed by the bearish price atmosphere in the U. S. commodity markets.

Statistics Canada pegged 2010-11 canola output in Canada at 10.4 million tonnes. Canadian canola output in 2009-10 was revised up to 12.4 million tonnes from 11.8 million.

Mike Jubinville, an analyst with ProFarmer Canada said while there are yield and quality issues, he anticipates final production numbers will be higher for the crop.

All wheat production in Canada in 2010-11 was pegged at 22.2 million tonnes down from 2009-10 production of 26.848 million tonnes.

Oats output in Canada for 2010-11 was seen at 2.3 million tonnes. Canada’s barley production in 2010-11 was pegged at 8.2 million tonnes, down from 9.517 million tonnes last year.

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