Soybean yields could break a provincial record this year.
According to the Oct. 8 Manitoba Agriculture crop report, with 70 per cent of the soybean harvest complete, reported yields are between 35 and 60 bushels an acre, with an average of 45. That was also the estimated yield range in the prior week’s report, when only 29 per cent of the province’s soybeans were off.
Why it matters: Manitoba’s warm September looks to be paying dividends at the bin.
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That would edge out the previous record set in 2022. Statistics Canada reported average soybean yields that year as 43 bu./acre, a number that was later repeated in the province’s “Estimates of Field Crop Production 2022” report. Before 2022, the provincial record for soybean yields was set in 2016 at 41 bu./acre.
“There have been lots of really good soybean yields this year,” said Manitoba Agriculture pulse specialist Dennis Lange. “I’m leaning towards 40 bu./acre, but the more people I speak to, the higher the numbers I’m hearing.”
All of those estimates are higher than what Statistics Canada expected. Its forecast, updated Sept. 16, put Manitoba’s soybean harvest at 37.3 bu./acre, much closer to the 10-year average of 38.
The national agency uses model-based yield estimates drawn from satellite imagery gathered in July and August, a methodology analysts argue can differ widely from survey-based numbers relayed near the end of the year.
Lange said estimates calculated in July and August can miss important late-season data. For instance, it was very cool in June this year, and though it warmed in July, soybeans were still behind through the summer. Additionally, moisture in July and August had an impact during the crucial R5 stage when the pods were filling out.
Then September came in warm, with a large number of days hitting 30 C. That would have helped the crop mature.
Above forecast
Soybeans are just one crop coming in higher than the StatCan forecasts. According to the Oct. 8 provincial crop report, barley yields are between 80 and 120 bu./acre, while the StatCan model predicted 70.1.
The crop report did not include an average yield for barley, but even if averages are on the lower end of the given range, they would creep close to record-setting yields. The last record was set in 2017, at 87 bu./acre.
Similarly, StatCan’s model predicted relatively poor yields for oats, at only 96.1 bu./acre, well below the 10-year average of 105 bu./acre. According to the crop report, with 99 per cent of oats harvested, farmers are seeing yields of 110–180 bu./acre.
Once again, even if the average leans toward the bottom of the range, Manitoba would have an above-average oat harvest. The last record of 128 bu./acre for that crop was set in 2017.
Spring wheat has a large range, the province reported. With 96 per cent of spring wheat harvested, farmers report yields between 40 and 95 bu./acre. StatCan’s prediction is within the lower half of that range at 57.1 bu./acre. The 10-year average for spring wheat is 58.
For canola, StatCan and Manitoba Agriculture are more closely aligned. With harvest 94 per cent complete, the crop report listed a yield range between 25 and 65 bu./acre, with averages between 30 and 45. StatCan’s model predicted yields of 41 bu./acre.
