Reuters – U.S. private forecaster AccuWeather expects a near- to below-average 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, it said March 26.
The hurricane season begins June 1.
AccuWeather said it expects 11 to 15 named tropical storms, four to eight hurricanes and between one and three major hurricanes to form in the Atlantic Ocean before the season ends Nov. 30.
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“We think El Niño will drive this season,” said Dan Kottlowski, lead hurricane forecaster for AccuWeather.
El Niño conditions form when areas of the eastern and central Pacific Ocean warm and wind directions change, creating high winds across the southern U.S. that break apart tropical storms.
The 2022 hurricane season fell below early forecasts, producing 14 named tropical storms and eight hurricanes. Four of those were considered to be major, with winds of at least 179 kilometres per hour.
At least 160 people were killed as Hurricane Ian crossed Cuba and the U.S. states of Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia in September and October 2022.
Kottlowski noted that even in a year when fewer storms are expected, people as far as 160 km inland should prepare.
“The problem is that Russian roulette thing we play,” he said. “Where is it going to hit?”
Increasing global temperatures are seen by meteorologists as a cause of more intense storms and higher rainfall totals, increasing damage and costs of recovery.
Forecasts for the previous seven hurricane seasons have predicted above-average levels of activity.
In 2020, the U.S. National Hurricane Center ran out of names for the storms and had to use Greek letters, a practice that has been discontinued.
Between 1990 and 2020, the average season has seen 14 named tropical storms and seven hurricanes, with three of those considered major.
