The U.S. National Weather Service is predicting a turnaround from last year’s record dry conditions, including a fairly high risk of significant flooding this spring.
A March 10 report out of Grand Forks forecasts moderate risk of “significant snowmelt flooding” across U.S. portions the Red River and Devils Lake basins.
That being said, the NWS says there are lingering drought conditions with some surface storage for snow melt infiltration if the thaw is gentle.
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Key snowmelt components in the report include near-normal streamflow in the Red River and its tributaries for this time of year. The river and its tributaries are thickly ice-covered and flowing between 25 and 75 per cent, the report says.
Soil moisture at freeze-up was near normal—slightly below in the northern basins. Frost depth is somewhat deeper than normal. Snowpack is also somewhat above normal.
Devils Lake Basin runoff risk is moderately high, the report says. An additional rise of three to four feet is expected. However, the lake is currently at more than a foot below what it was this time last year.
At time of writing, the most recent flood outlook from the province of Manitoba, released February 18, forecasts high risk of moderate spring flooding in most southern Manitoba basins due to higher-than-average snowfall.
“Water levels are expected to remain below dikes and community flood protection levels at all locations,” the provincial report says.
Soil moisture at freeze-up was below normal for most Manitoba basins the provincial. Most major lakes are below normal levels for this time of year.
The province will release an updated forecast later this March.
