Reuters – Spring wheat yields in North Dakota, the U.S.’s top-producing state, will exceed the five-year average but fall short of last year as farmers grapple with an expanding drought, scouts on an annual crop tour said July 25.
The Wheat Quality Council tour predicted an average yield of 47.4 bushels per acre, compared to the average 40.1 bushels and the 2022 tour’s estimate for 49.1 bushels.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture is projecting North Dakota’s spring wheat yield at 47 bu./acre, down from 50 last year.
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Grain traders are monitoring conditions of spring wheat, used in foods ranging from pizza crusts to bagels or blended with lower quality flour, after Russia ignited global supply concerns by quitting the deal that allowed safe Ukrainian crop exports from Black Sea ports. Other major shippers are suffering from drought.
On North Dakota farms, the worsened dryness follows cold, wet weather that delayed spring planting in some areas. Drought Monitor data issued July 27 showed 44 per cent of the state’s spring wheat was in drought areas as of two days prior, up from 32 per cent a week earlier and 24 per cent two weeks before.
“I’m surprised the yields are as high as they are,” said Randy Martinson, president of Martinson Ag Risk Management in Fargo, N.D. “I do think there are going to be some lower yields if we don’t see some follow up rains.”
North Dakota will probably continue to receive lighter-than-normal rainfall, though most crop damage from dryness is likely already factored into estimates, said Drew Lerner, president of forecaster World Weather Inc.
“We’re just not going to have the moisture that everyone wants,” he said.
U.S. millers and bakers have hoped for a good crop to offset harvest losses from drought in the southern Great Plains hard red winter wheat belt.
“This is a year when we need the wheat,” Dave Green, Wheat Quality Council executive vice-president, said on a webcast. “It looks like we’re on the edge of skating through another narrow doorway to get another good crop that’s planted late.”
