The outlook for soy production in Brazil darkened further on Feb. 27 after public and private forecasters cut their harvest outlooks for the world’s No. 2 grower again from predictions provided in recent weeks.
A harsh drought in the south of the country has stressed this year’s soy and corn crops, thanks in part to the prevailing La Niña weather conditions that have also parched grain- producing areas in Argentina, raising concerns of global food shortages and rising grain prices.
Consultancy AgRural cut its forecast for the soy crop now being harvested to 68 million tonnes from its previous forecast in January of 70.2 million tonnes due to falling productivity, even though it predicted a record in total planted area.
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Another group, Agroconsult, cut its soy forecast to 69.9 million tonnes from the 71 million tonnes it had forecast earlier in February.
“The reality is that the harvest has been jeopardized and some losses are irreversible,” said Agroconsult analyst Andre Debastani, referring to the crop in Parana state his consultancy is now visiting. It is one of several important southern grains states to have been hit hard by the drought blamed partly on the La Niña weather anomaly.
Agroconsult raised its forecast for corn output, however, due to an increase in its estimate for the total area to be planted in the second of two annual corn harvests. It forecast 63.7 million tonnes, up from 61 million tonnes forecast in January.
Prices for soybean futures have been on the rise since mid-December and are now up 15 per cent over the past two months.
Heavy rain
Southern Brazil grain states went for weeks with little or no rain though showers in early February brought relief. The crop in top soy-producing state Mato Grosso escaped the dryness.
Weather forecaster Somar predicted heavy rains all week in the states worst affected by the drought — Parana and No. 3 soy state Rio Grande do Sul. Mato Grosso, which has been too wet for harvesting in places, would see only light rain.
“The rains will present more significant volumes in soy areas, which will make up for a shortage of moisture,” Somar said in a daily grains bulletin.
Brazil harvested a record soy crop last year of 75.3 million tonnes. The government’s Feb. 9 forecast for the 2011-12 harvest was for a soy crop of 69.23 million tonnes, down from a January view of 71.75 million.
Parana’s state agriculture agency Deral lopped one million tonnes off expected soy production for the state Feb. 27 forecasting production of 10.7 million tonnes, versus the 11.7 million tonnes it foresaw in January.
