By Dave Sims and Phil Franz-Warkentin
Winnipeg, October 1 – THE ICE Futures Canada canola market ended on a weaker note after prices ran into technical resistance on the chart and traders began positioning themselves ahead of Friday’s Statistics Canada updated crop estimates.
The November contract was initially stronger, climbing to a mark of C$481.90 before running out of momentum and plunging down to C$473. One trader noted it was the fourth day in a row canola had risen above the technical resistance but couldn’t hold it.
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Weakness in the US soy complex, Malaysian palm oil and European rapeseed futures also put pressure on prices.
The Canadian dollar was stronger relative to its US counterpart which made canola less attractive to domestic crushers and foreign buyers.
However, farmers have been relatively slow to unload supplies which underpinned the market.
“We’re not seeing any harvest pressure and we’re in the middle of harvest,” said an analyst.
Commercial demand has been steady though which helped to support the market.
A total of 33,628 canola contracts were traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when 25,007 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 21,886 of the contracts traded.
Milling wheat, barley and durum were all untraded.
Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were nine to 15 cents per bushel lower on Thursday, finishing near their lows for the day as an early rally gave way to profit-taking.
The advancing US harvest and generally improving yield prospects contributed to the eventual losses in soybeans, according to participants.
However, weekly US export sales were very strong at 2.5 million tonnes, and provided some underlying support.
SOYOIL settled near unchanged on Thursday.
SOYMEAL futures were lower on Thursday, following soybeans.
CORN futures in Chicago were narrowly mixed on Thursday, settling within a penny of unchanged as the grain found itself caught between the losses in soybeans and the rally in wheat.
Weekly US corn exports, at 750,000 tonnes, were at the low end of trade estimates but still well above what was seen the previous week.
Harvest pressure was also bearish for corn, although concerns that Hurricane Joaquin may cause delays were somewhat supportive on the other side.
WHEAT futures in Chicago were up two to five cents per bushel on Thursday, seeing some follow-through buying interest after Wednesday’s rally.
The USDA lowered both its production and stocks estimates for US wheat in reports out on Wednesday.
Weather concerns in Australia and the Black Sea region were also supportive.
However, US wheat is still missing out in the global export market, with weekly sales of only 77,100 tonnes coming in well below the already pessimistic trade guesses.
– As of October 1, Russian wheat export tariffs are being reduced to 10 rubles per tonne, from 50 rubles, which should lead to increased exports from the country.
– Dry weather conditions were reportedly hampering winter wheat seeding in Ukraine, but wet weather in nearby Bulgaria was causing its own problems, according to reports.
