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North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Spread, weekend rain push up canola prices

By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm

WINNIPEG, June 17 (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures canola contracts were stronger on Monday, in a heavy volume of trade.

“Big volumes, big spread. The market doesn’t know which way to go,” commented a Winnipeg-based analyst.

The lack of significant rainfall on the Prairies wasn’t enough to help crops. Meanwhile in the United States, there was a great deal of rain across the Midwest and Plains, with the forecast for more this week.

As canola continues to struggle to grow on the Prairies, there is now the likelihood of U.S. farmers being unable to plant all of their soybeans.

There were 38,433 contracts traded on Monday, which compares with Friday when 27,836 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 34,460 contracts traded.
Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Price Change
Canola Jul 459.60 up 4.70
Nov 475.40 up 5.10
Jan 482.30 up 6.20
Mar 488.30 up 6.80

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were stronger on Monday, due to excessive rain over much of the United States Midwest and Plains, with more precipitation in this week’s forecast.

The rain has caused further planting delays and raised the possibility of 15 million to 18 million acres of U.S. soybeans going unplanted this year.

With the U.S. Department of Agriculture releasing its weekly crop progress report later this afternoon, the markets projected approximately 82 per cent of soybeans to be planted. The five-year average at this point has been 93 per cent.

The USDA issues its crop acreage report on June 28, and the markets expect the report will illustrate the shift from corn to soybeans.

The USDA reported in its weekly export inspections for soybeans were about 675,000 tonnes.

CORN futures were stronger on Monday, due to spillover from soybeans.

The markets predicted corn planting to reach 90 to 95 planted. The five-year average has been 100 per cent. As with soybeans, the possibility has arisen that corn acres could go unplanted.

The USDA export inspections were about 654,000 tonnes.

High water levels have closed several sections along the Mississippi River, that’s created a backlog of several hundred corn-laden barges. It was unknown as to when movement would resume.

Brazil’s 2018/19 corn crop has been projected to hit 101.20 million tonnes.

WHEAT futures were mixed on Monday, with a little bit of spillover that helped Chicago wheat, but Kansas City and Minneapolis bids lost ground on technical maneuvering.

The markets pegged spring wheat conditions to remain the same at last week’s 81 per cent good to excellent condition.

Also, the markets believe U.S. winter wheat harvest has hit an estimated 14 per cent complete.

The USDA’s weekly export inspections were 375,000 tonnes.

Due to dry conditions, Australia lowered its wheat production for this year from 22.50 million tonnes to 21.2 million tonnes. Their exports are expected to drop from 13.4 million tonnes to 11.0 million tonnes.

Commodity Future Prices

Canola
Price Change

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton

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