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North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola bids up after volatile trading

By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm

WINNIPEG, June 18 (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures canola contracts were up slightly on Tuesday, after a volatile session with heavy activity.

The weather forecast for the Prairies has called for rain over the next day to three days. If precipitation is sufficient enough, bids could be affected.

Also, Prairie farmers re-seeded large amounts of their canola and have been dealing with insects, disease and other pests.

One trader suggested the market will likely enter a holding pattern for now, until the crops further develop. He noted that bids could ball back somewhat, due to nervousness in the market.

There were 39,712 contracts traded on Tuesday, which compares with Monday when 38,433 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 26,986 contracts traded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Price Change
Canola Jul 460.50 up 0.90
Nov 476.00 up 0.60
Jan 482.90 up 0.60
Mar 488.80 up 0.50

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were slightly stronger on Tuesday, the day after the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its weekly crop progress report.

Bids were up three-quarters of a cent to a penny per bushel.

In the report, soybeans reached 77 per cent planted, behind the five-year average of 93 per cent. The markets believe that 15 million to 18 million soybean acres will go unplanted this year due to excessively wet conditions.

Of the soybeans planted, the USDA reported that 55 per cent have emerged, which is well back of the five-year average of 84 per cent.
An analyst said the crop progress report was bullish, but had a bearish response.

The National Oilseed Processors Association reported that 4.213 million tonnes were crushed in May, up 2.6 per cent from this time last year.

CORN futures were weaker on Tuesday, due to a round of profit-taking with prices down five to six cents per bushel.

The USDA’s crop progress report stated 92 per cent of corn has been planted, catching up to the five-year average of 100 per cent. However, the markets estimated 7 million to 8 million corn acres could go unplanted in 2019.

Emergence came in at 79 per cent, off the pace of 97 per cent. Corn was rated as 59 per cent good to excellent condition, that’s down from 78 per cent this time last year.

Agroconsult estimated Brazil’s 2018/19 corn production to top 101.198 million tonnes, with about 38.0 million tonnes in exports.

WHEAT futures were down on Tuesday, due to technical selling combined with spillover from corn.

Price in Chicago and Minneapolis slipped seven to eight cents per bushel, while Kansas City bids dropped by more than 10 cents.

The USDA said spring wheat emergence was two points behind pace at 95 per cent. Two per cent has headed out, well back of the five-year average of 12 per cent. The condition was rated as 77 per cent good to excellent, on par with this time last year at 78 per cent.

As for winter wheat, 89 per cent has headed out, back of the pace of 95 per cent. Nationally, eight per cent has been harvested, behind the five-year average of 20 per cent. This year’s crop was rated as 64 per cent good to excellent condition, significantly better than 39 per cent at this point in 2018.

Drought conditions forced Australia to drop its 2019/20 wheat export projections by more than 18 per cent to 11.70 million tonnes.

Japan purchased nearly 62,600 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the U.S.

Commodity Future Prices

Canola
Price Change

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton

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