ICE Futures canola contracts traded within a wide range during the first week of November, falling sharply lower at one point before buyers came forward to take values to their highest levels since July.
Gains in world vegetable oil markets were behind much of the strength in canola, although the Canadian market ran into resistance and lagged outside markets. Palm oil hit new two-year highs, while Chicago soyoil traded at its strongest levels in months and European rapeseed neared its own contract highs.
From a chart standpoint, the January contract moved above psychological resistance at $660 per tonne during the week, with the next upside target at the summer highs around $680 per tonne. On the other side, support comes in around $630 per tonne.
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Strong demand and tightening supplies boosted palm oil, which spilled into the other vegetable oil markets. Ideas that Canada’s canola crop was likely smaller than the official estimate of 19 million tonnes were also supportive, with many analysts thinking production is likely closer to 18 million tonnes.
Canadian canola exports are running about double the pace of last year, with 3.1 million tonnes already shipped through 13 weeks. While canola exports are usually front loaded, the threat of possible Chinese actions against Canadian canola likely encouraged even more early buying this year.
China continues to move forward with its anti-dumping investigation into Canadian canola, and rumours circulated in the market during the week that the country could be close to retaliating against Canada’s tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.
Meanwhile, the domestic crush could hit a new record in 2024/25, with about three million tonnes already crushed through the first quarter of the crop year.
The re-election of Donald Trump in the United States is a wild card in the background, as his policies have the potential to shift global trade flows. What that will mean for prices remains to be seen but expect politics to dominate the agricultural markets over the next four years in one way or another.
