The Manitoba Pork Council is trying to set its feet against yet another trade onslaught, this one from Asia.
Canada’s pork sector was already plenty worried about trade in early March with tariffs flying back and forth between Canada and the U.S., the industry’s biggest trade destination. On March 8, they got a whole new battlefield to worry about.
Canadian pork was included on China’s list of tariffs against Canadian products, which were set to come into effect March 20. It, along with aquatic products, were slated for 25 per cent tariffs.
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WHY IT MATTERS: Canadian farmers and agriculture products now face a trade war on two fronts with both the U.S. and China threatening or acting to impose steep tariffs against Canadian goods.
According to a 2025 market update from Farm Credit Canada, published in February, Canada averaged 270,158 tonnes of pork exports to the U.S. from 2019 to 2023 and 262,363 tonnes of pork exports to China in the same time frame.
In Manitoba, China represents “about $130 million, our largest market,” said Manitoba Pork Council general manager Cam Dahl. “But it’s more than just the size of the market. We ship things to China that don’t readily have a market elsewhere.”
That includes things like offal.
Chinese trade tensions
The trade tone with China was already soured last year after Canada announced 100 per cent and 25 per cent import duties, respectively, on Chinese electric vehicles, steel and aluminum.
When China announced an anti-dumping investigation into Canadian canola seed, many saw it as a retaliatory move for those tariffs.
Canola meal and oil were among the Canadian food products targeted by China during its more recent tariff announcement. They were slated for 100 per cent tariffs, along with peas. In total, the Chinese tariffs covered more than $2.6 billion worth of Canadian agricultural and food products.
Where will the Canadian pork market go?
Immediate pork impacts from the tariffs may be minimal due to existing contracts, Dahl said, but the long-term impact could be severe.
“I haven’t seen a significant slip in prices, and many of those are sold under longer-term contracts,” he said. “So, you know, we aren’t necessarily going to see an immediate impact from tariffs.”
The fact that their largest trading partners are putting up trade barriers is disheartening.
Outside of the double whammy to pork exports, Manitoba is wary of the impact of U.S. tariffs on live pig trade. About 98 per cent of the province’s $233 million in live hog exports headed down to the U.S. in 2024, according to a trade statistics report from Manitoba Agriculture.
René Roy, chair of the Canadian Pork Council, said there has been volatility in pork prices since the announcement of incoming Chinese tariffs. While domestic demand remains steady, the loss of such an export market affects overall price stability.
“Some price softening has been noted, particularly for products that were heavily exported to China,” Roy said, adding that the long-term effects of the tariffs will depend on how quickly alternative markets can absorb some of the volume.
Efforts to diversify export markets could help mitigate risks, but Dahl said replacing China as a primary destination would be difficult.
“That’s something that we’re always looking at… but it’s 40 per cent of our exports when you consider both pork and live pigs. So that 40 per cent is hard to replace,” he said.
With new Chinese tariffs adding to existing trade barriers, it remains unclear how deeply the impact will be felt, said H@MS Marketing Services general manager Bill Alford. However, Alford believes that effects will primarily be felt in forward contracting.
“The value of forward contracting isn’t at the highest as it was back in early February, but fundamentally, the margins in the hog business have been very good,” he said. “Up until now, we were just worried about a major market disruption around market access being an issue.”
Uncertainty over shifting U.S. trade policies is also adding pressure, Alford said.
“Just last week, (Trump) gave Mexico specifically an extension on the tariffs and then didn’t really mention Canada, and then we find out that it was amended to include Canada,” Alford said, calling it an “odd and unclear” way of communication.
So far, there has been no notable shift in demand from other international buyers in response to the tariffs, Alford said. However, if these tariffs become long-term, it will impact the sector in a trickle-down fashion.
For exports, China’s newly announced tariffs could carry significant financial implications, especially for those who rely on the Chinese market for pork by-products, said Stéphanie Couturier, vice-president of communications with Olymel.
Despite these concerns, Olymel believes it is in a better position than in 2020 when Canadian pork was temporarily shut out of the Chinese market during the COVID-19 pandemic, Couturier said.
A spokesperson for Maple Leaf Foods said that the company has done extensive scenario analysis to understand the implications of tariffs for the business at large and is focusing on mitigation strategies to reduce any harmful effects.
Pork in the crossfire
There is also the matter of an extra 10 per cent tariff announced by China on U.S. pork.
When the U.S. and China last tussled on pork in 2018, Canadian industry was caught in the fallout. The tariff-driven drop in U.S. hog prices also flowed north of the border. But while U.S. hog producers got some financial relief from their government, Canadian producers did not, said then-Manitoba Pork chair George Matheson.
The ongoing U.S.-China trade war is expected to have ripple effects on Canadian prices, Alford said.
“The U.S. is a major exporter to Mexico,” he said. “Does Canada backfill that?”
U.S. subsidies for farmers in past trade disputes have put Canadian producers at a disadvantage, Alford believes.
“We saw no government assistance through trade impact to the ag industry due to tariffs before,” he said.
Industry searches for solid market ground
The CPC is working closely with government and industry partners to accelerate trade efforts in emerging markets like the Indo-Pacific region, including countries like Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia, Roy said.
“We are also focused on expanding access to markets in Latin America and increasing exports to existing trade partners like Japan and South Korea.”
While Roy doesn’t expect that the delivery of pork will be disrupted, the tariffs will deal a blow to the competitiveness of the Canadian pork sector if they persist.
“If the tariffs remain in place and are compounded by other trade disruption, we could see supply chain bottlenecks develop, particularly in regions heavily dependent on exports,” he said.
While all regions of Canada will be impacted by the Chinese tariffs, provinces with a larger share of exports to China, including Quebec and Ontario, may feel the pinch the most, Roy said.
“Producers in Western Canada, who are more integrated into North American supply chains, are also experiencing challenges, particularly as global markets adjust to these restrictions.”
Canadian producers are still in discussions with both the provincial and federal governments regarding possible support, Dahl said.
The national pork council has also been in talks with government officials to stress the urgency of the situation, Roy said.
“We are working with Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada and Global Affairs Canada to find solutions, including diplomatic efforts to resolve the issue and exploring market diversification opportunities. Additionally, we are advocating for financial relief for affected producers.”
While no specific financial assistance has been announced, Roy said the council is advocating for targeted relief measures.
“Canadian pork producers should not be left to bear the brunt of international trade disputes alone. We are urging the government to provide financial tools similar to those offered to U.S. farmers in previous disputes,” he said.
Plan for market risk
Manitoba Pork is advising producers to use available risk management tools where possible due to the uncertainty in the sector.
“The advice would be as much as possible to use some of the tools available, such as forward contracting or hedging,” Dahl said.
Alford agrees, pointing clients to risk management services offered by his organization for forward contracting.
Producers “have been very active in forward contracting to help mitigate the price risk and uncertainty. But really, until something is permanent or…more longer-term, there’s not too much you can do,” he said.
With no clear end in sight, the industry is taking a cautious, wait-and-see approach, Alford said.
“I heard one fellow from the U.S. at a conference describe it as ‘panic, slowly.’”
