U.S. grains: Wheat at 18-month low on Black Sea deal hope

Soybeans boosted by slash to Argentina harvest

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Published: March 9, 2023

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CBOT May 2023 soft red winter wheat with Bollinger bands (20,2). (Barchart)

Chicago | Reuters — Chicago wheat futures on Wednesday fell to their lowest point in 18 months on expectations for a Black Sea grains deal and continued poor demand for U.S. exports.

“Wheat was down most of the day, initially on talk of corridor extension talks, then off a lackluster WASDE report,” Charlie Sernatinger of Marex Capital Markets said in an analyst note, referring to the U.S. Agriculture Department’s (USDA) monthly world agricultural supply and demand (WASDE) report.

CBOT May soft red winter wheat closed at $6.87-1/2, down 10.5 cents on the day; Minneapolis May hard red spring closed at $8.38-1/2, down 13.25 cents, and K.C. May hard red winter at $8.00-1/4, up one cent (all figures US$).

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The benchmark corn futures contract closed 8-3/4 cents lower at $6.25-1/2 a bushel after the U.S. government estimated domestic corn supplies would be bigger than expected.

The most active soybean futures contract closed 2-1/4 cents higher at $15.17-3/4 a bushel, driven up by USDA slashing its Argentine soy production estimate to 33 million tonnes from earlier predictions of 41 million tonnes, a deeper cut than analysts were expecting.

“If some of us are thinking the USDA may not get that aggressive … no, they got a lot more aggressive than some of us thought,” said Craig Turner of Daniels Trading.

The U.S. wheat market is under pressure from Russian export competition and expectations that a wartime grain corridor from Ukraine will be extended beyond this month, increasing available global supplies.

Ukraine’s president and the United Nations Secretary-General called on Wednesday for the extension of a deal with Moscow that has allowed Ukraine to export grain via Black Sea ports during Russia’s invasion.

Top U.N. trade official Rebeca Grynspan will meet senior Russian officials in Geneva next week to discuss extending the deal, a U.N. spokesperson said on Wednesday.

A Turkish diplomatic source said on Wednesday Ankara was “working very hard” to ensure the deal continues but that Russia’s demands have not yet been met.

— Reporting for Reuters by Cassandra Garrison, Naveen Thukral and Sybille de La Hamaide.

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