StatsCan confirms tight canola stocks

A record-setting domestic crush pace and solid export demand cut into Canadian canola supplies a little more than expected, according to the stocks report Statistics Canada released Friday.

Supplies of most grains and oilseeds were tighter on March 31, 2011, than they were at the same point the previous year, the federal statistics agency said.

Canadian canola stocks of 4.85 million tonnes on March 31 compare with 6.283 million the previous year.

“The canola number is definitely on the tight side… and it tells us that we’ll be looking at ending stocks well below a million tonnes this year,” said Ken Ball of Union Securities, adding that the attention will quickly turn to new crop production.

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“This might be a bit supportive for old-crop canola, given the demand projections,” said Jerry Klassen, manager of GAP Grains in Winnipeg.

All wheat stocks were pegged at 15.599 million tonnes, compared with 17.104 million in 2010. Of that total, durum was down nearly two million tonnes on the year, to 2.871 million, while non-durum wheat, at 12.728 million, was slightly above the 12.341 million tonnes seen in 2010.

Ron Frost, of Frost Forecast Consulting in Calgary, said the stocks numbers provided some confirmation on the slow movement of non-durum wheat over the winter months and the tighter durum supplies.

“It will certainly encourage growers to try and push their durum seedings this year, because there should be a good market for it,” said Ball.

Barley stocks at 3.515 million tonnes were down from 5.096 million in 2010, but were in line with trade expectations.

StatsCan pegged oats stocks at 1.493 million tonnes, down from 2.066 million at the same point in 2010. While the tight supplies could be seen as supportive for the market, Klassen said oats could have been tighter still.

Flaxseed stocks, at 359,000 tonnes, were down from 596,000 the previous year but in line with trade expectations.

Table 1. Statistics Canada grain and oilseed stocks in all positions (on-farm and commercial). Figures at March 31, 2011, in thousands of tonnes.

Table 2. Summary of the major crops included in the Statistics Canada grain and oilseed stocks in all positions report as of March 31, 2011. Figures are in millions of tonnes.

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