CNS Canada — Statistics Canada will release its updated acreage estimates for the year on Tuesday, but the timing of the survey could lead to more questions and second-guessing than normal given the likely adjustments and yield losses over the past month.
The survey was conducted before a drought took hold in Alberta and Saskatchewan, and before frost damage and the resulting need for reseeding in the eastern Prairies, analyst Wayne Palmer of Agri-Trend Marketing noted.
With the canola crop in particular looking “very uneven,” he said the acreage number will do little in helping determine possible production.
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“As important as acres are, yield is twice as important,” said Mike Jubinville of ProFarmer Canada. There was a historical tendency to underestimate canola area in the first report of the year, he said, but thought that may not be the case this year.
In addition, there is usually about a two per cent decline in harvested area compared to seeded area, but the abandoned acres may be considerably larger this year, according to Jubinville.
About 1.5 million acres of canola needed to be reseeded, but “a couple hundred thousand” acres of that area went to other crops instead, said CWB market analyst Bruce Burnett.
Actual harvested canola area will likely drop further still, but that won’t be represented in the June report, he said.
“People shied away from canola on the second-go-round,” said Jerry Klassen, manager for GAP S.A. Grains and Produits in Winnipeg. “I don’t think we’ll see any big surprises, but the market will be extremely sensitive to the canola number.”
Pre-report guesses for canola range from about 19 million to 20.4 million acres, with the majority coming in at the lower end of that scale. That would compare with the 19.4 million acres forecast in the previous report and the year-ago level of 20.3 million.
For wheat, acreage estimates range from 24.2 million to 25.8 million, which compares with the 24.765 million acres forecast in April and the 2014-15 level of 23.835 million.
Of that total, most pre-report guesses were only about 100,000 acres one way or the other from the 5.5 million predicted in April. Canadian farmers seeded 4.75 million acres of durum the previous year.
The barley market will also be watching closely, according to Klassen, as area already came in at the low end of trade guesses in the earlier report.
Pre-report guesses range from about 6.1 million to 6.9 million acres, which compare with the 6.478 million acres forecast in April and the year-ago level of 5.88 million.
— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.
Table: Pre-report trade guesses, in millions of acres. “All wheat” includes remaining winter wheat.
| Pre-report | StatsCan | StatsCan | |
| estimates | March 2015. . | 2014-15 | |
| Canola | 19.000 – 20.400. . | 19.416 | 20.325 |
| All wheat | 24.200 – 25.800 | 24.765 | 23.835 |
| Durum | 5.300 – 5.700 | 5.500 | 4.750 |
| Barley | 6.100 – 6.900 | 6.478 | 5.880 |
| Flaxseed | 1.500 – 1.700 | 1.630 | 1.555 |
| Oats | 3.200 – 3.800 | 3.645 | 2.798 |
