MarketsFarm — Smaller-than-expected Canadian lentil production in 2022-23 could limit the country’s export potential going forward, according to an official with Pulse Canada reacting to the latest production estimates.
The report from Statistics Canada (StatCan) released Friday contains the first survey-based production estimates of the 2022-23 marketing year, while previous ones used satellite imagery.
Most crops saw increases in production compared to the drought-stricken 2021-22 marketing year, but many production estimates were adjusted downward compared to those from the previous report released in September.
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Lentil production increased to 2.3 million tonnes, compared to 1.61 million in 2021-22. However, the estimate from September’s report was 2.78 million and the trade expected 2.7 million.
“I saw estimates as high as 2.8 million tonnes,” Mac Ross, director of market access and trade policy for Pulse Canada, said. “I think they pegged a smaller number by having a smaller yield.”
While Canadian lentil exports are off to a strong start, according to Ross, the lower production estimate may become a concern for exporters.
“If production is going to be around 2.3 million tonnes, it likely will limit our export program to two million tonnes,” he added. “When we look into next year and maybe see acreage drop again, I think it becomes troublesome if the rest of the world has a production hiccup.”
Despite the increase in production, Ross said carryout stocks are likely to remain low.
“Last year was an anomaly with the drought in Western Canada. (For) lentils, we could see lower stocks again because we’ve had a strong start to exports this year,” he said.
Dry pea production was totalled at 3.42 million tonnes in 2022-23, compared to 2.26 million the previous year. This month’s estimate was five per cent below the September estimate, but was close to trade expectations of 3.5 million.
“Harvest area was up by a few acres, but (the average) yield shrank by a couple of bushels (per acre),” said Ross. “Current movement usually slows down this time of year… China, (which) was taking a lot of Canadian peas due to price dynamics, isn’t as hot on their purchases as in past years. It remains to be seen, but maybe there won’t be as tight a supply on peas this year as there could be on lentils.”
He added that economic unrest, as well as pulse supplies from other countries, may affect Canadian pulse exports very soon.
“There are some economic issues in Sri Lanka and some foreign currency reserve issues in Pakistan that may impair demand. We’re also watching closely the Australian crop harvests as it’s been a wet year there. We’ll have to see the extent of that damage, but likely the strong demand for lentils will continue,” Ross said.
“We’re also seeing India’s rabi (crop harvest). There may be an increase in acres there, so we’ll be watching come March when their lentil tariff is set to be re-evaluated… We’re also in the process of negotiating a free trade agreement with India.”
Chickpea production rose by nearly 68 per cent from the year before, to 128,000 tonnes in 2022-23, but the total is still below the 214,400 tonnes produced in 2020.
Unlike the other pulses, dry bean production is slated for a decline in 2022-23. Its production total is estimated at 313,000 tonnes, less than the 385,900 tonnes grown in 2021-22. Wet spring weather in Manitoba during planting was one of the major factors related to the production cut. In 2020-21, dry bean production in Canada was totalled at 489,500 tonnes.
— Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.
