(Resource News International) — Canola and barley output in Canada during the 2010-11 crop year will be larger than expected based on the production survey released by Statistics Canada early Friday, industry sources said.
“The numbers released are very realistic but with the good weather across the Canadian Prairies since the survey was conducted, one can suggest that output will actually be higher still,” said Calgary analyst Ron Frost of Agri-Trend Marketing Inc. and Frost Forecasting Corp.
Statistics Canada’s canola figure of 10.867 million tonnes was already at the high end of pre-report projections, he acknowledged, but when the good weather over the past three or four weeks is factored in, canola production could easily be over 11 million tonnes.
Read Also
Senft to step down as CEO of Seeds Canada
Barry Senft, the founding CEO of the five-year-old Seeds Canada organization is stepping down as of January 2026.
Pre-report expectations for canola had ranged from 10.3 million to 10.91 million tons. In 2009-10, Canadian canola production was 11.825 million.
“There will definitely need to be a close examination of the acreage base used and a better definition of what constitutes washed-out yields,” said Ken Ball, a broker with Union Securities Ltd. in Winnipeg.
Higher production estimates contained in the overall report were expected, Ball said, but not in the government agency’s first look at the crop.
Statistics Canada pegged Canada’s 2010-11 barley production at 8.488 million tonnes, which topped pre-report expectations that ranged from 7.2 million to 7.8 million tonnes. In 2009-10, Canada harvested a 9.517 million-tonne barley crop.
Producers in the spring were going to take a chance on the planting of a couple of crops, including peas, oats and barley, Frost said. “It appears that barley may have won out, particularly in Alberta.”
He also felt cereal yields, especially for barley, have been much better than expected.
Mike Jubinville, an analyst with ProFarmer Canada in Winnipeg, said the high barley estimate wasn’t as surprising as it should be. Depending on how aggressive the domestic sector wants barley, and if the Canadian Wheat Board decides to push sales on the international market, the extra output will be easily absorbed, he said.
“With the global drought problems, barley on the world market is in short supply and that is being reflected back in the sharp jump in international barley values,” he said.
The domestic barley market in Canada has not matched the jump in global barley values, but there should be some spillover benefit, Jubinville said.
Statistics Canada pegged Canada’s 2010-11 oats crop at 2.392 million tonnes. Pre-report estimates had called for output to be in the two million- to 2.7 million-tonne range. Production in 2009-10 totalled 2.798 million tonnes.
“Even with the oats crop in Canada likely to be revised higher in future survey updates, that will still present a tight scenario for end-users in the longer term,” Jubinville said.
Wheat jumps
All wheat output in Canada in 2010-11 was forecast by Statistics Canada at 22.659 million tonnes, which was also at the high end of pre-report projections which ranged from 19.6 million to 21.9 million tonnes. All wheat output in Canada in 2009-10 totalled 26.515 million tonnes.
The actual all-wheat production figure was also likely to be raised, given the improved weather conditions across Western Canada over the past number of weeks, Ball said.
Part of the jump in the all-wheat figure was linked to durum output coming in at the high end of pre-report ideas, Jubinville said.
Canadian 2010/11 durum output was pegged at 3.122 million tonnes. Pre-report ideas had ranged from 2.7 million to 3.14 million tonnes. In 2009-10, Canadian durum output totalled 5.399 million tonnes.
Pea output in Canada was pegged at 3.1 million tonnes. Pre-report projections ranged from 2.6 million to 2.99 million tonnes. Output of peas in 2009-10 totalled 3.379 million tonnes.
Canada’s flaxseed production in 2010-11 was placed at 570,000 tonnes; pre-report estimates ranged from 550,000 to 600,000. Flax production in 2009-10 was 930,000 tonnes.
The following are Statistics Canada’s estimates and pre-report ideas for 2010-11 Canadian production, in millions of tonnes.
| Trade | StatsCan, | 2009-10 | |
| estimates | July 31 | production | |
| 2010/11 | |||
| Canola | 10.30-10.93 | 10.867 | 11.825 |
| All wheat | 19.60-21.90 | 22.659 | 26.515 |
| — Durum | 2.70-3.14 | 3.122 | 5.399 |
| Barley | 7.20-7.80 | 8.488 | 9.517 |
| Oats | 2.00-2.70 | 2.392 | 2.798 |
| Peas | 2.60-2.99 | 3.100 | 3.379 |
| Flaxseed | 0.55-0.60 | 0.570 | 0.930 |
