Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm — The ICE Futures canola market posted solid gains during the week ended March 26 to trade at its best levels in more than two weeks despite recently imposed Chinese tariffs on canola oil and meal the looming threat of broad tariffs from the United States.
“We’re in the ‘I don’t know what will happen next’ phase,” said MarketsFarm analyst Mike Jubinville, noting the extent of the U.S. tariffs and their impact on the futures markets remains very much in the air.
Read Also
U.S. again halts cattle imports from Mexico over flesh-eating screwworms
The flesh-eating livestock pest New World screwworm has advanced closer to the U.S. border with Mexico, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said, prompting Washington to block imports of Mexican cattle just days after it allowed them to resume at a port of entry in Arizona.
However, he added the underlying fundamental signals remain relatively supportive for canola, with the oilseed attractively priced on the global market.
Cash basis levels across the Prairies and at the West Coast have improved lately, which Jubinville saw as a sign that recent weakness in the futures was tied more to speculative selling than the fundamentals.
Cash basis in Vancouver was at C$50 per tonne above the futures as of March 26, according to ICE Futures data. That marks the widest basis on the West Coast since June 2023 and compares with C$35 per tonne a month ago. Average basis levels across the Prairies for nearby delivery have tightened by about C$10 to C$20 per tonne over the past month, to range from roughly C$22 to C$44 per tonne underneath the futures for spot delivery, according to data compiled by PDQ (Price and Direct Quotes).
