Glacier FarmMedia – A return to trend yields should see an increase in production for most of the major crops grown in Canada in the upcoming 2024/25 (Aug/Jul) marketing year, according to the first outlook for the season from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada released Jan. 22.
“For 2024/2025, rotation considerations, moisture conditions, expected prices and input costs/availability are expected to be the main factors determining seeding decisions in the spring,” said AAFC in its report, adding “The average yield and production for most crops is forecast to increase year-over-year based on a return to trend yields, assuming normal weather conditions.”
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Citing lower prices and ample global supplies, AAFC forecasts a three per cent decline in non-durum wheat area ant 8.248 million hectares. Durum plantings were forecast to hold relatively steady at 2.477 million hectares. However, total wheat production in 2024/25 is forecast to increase to 33.296 million tonnes, from 31.954 million in 2023/24 due to an expected increase in yields. Canadian wheat exports are forecast to rise to 24.350 million tonnes in 2024/25, from an estimated 23.200 million in the current marketing year.
The total wheat carryout is forecast to rise to 4.200 million tonnes by the end of the 2024/25 marketing year, which would be up from the 3.950 million tonnes projected for 2023/24 and the 3.658 million tonnes seen in 2022/23.
Seeded canola area was forecast at 8.800 million hectares, which would be down slightly from the 8.936 million hectares planted the previous year. Canola production is forecast at 18.365 million tonnes, which would be in line with the 18.328 million tonnes grown in 2023/24. Canola exports were forecast to hold steady at 7.700 million tonnes, with ending stocks dipping to
1.400 million tonnes from a projected 1.450 million tonnes in 2023/24.
Barley is also forecast to see a smaller acreage base but increased production, while oats area and production are both forecast to increase in 2024/25. Total barley production is expected to rise by four per cent, at 9.280 million tonnes, while the oats crop could be up by as much as 41 per cent, at 3.705 million tonnes.
Pea, lentil, and chickpea plantings are all expected to be up on the year, with increased production and yields also likely. Pea production is forecast to increase by 19 per cent, at 3.100 million tonnes, while lentil production of 2.200 million tonnes would be up by 32 per cent.
— Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg.
