Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm — The Chicago Board of Trade paid attention to the latest comments from United States President Donald Trump and the first set of planting progress reports from the U.S. Department of Agriculture during the week ended April 23.
On April 22, Trump seemed willing to reverse his actions on China, saying that tariffs on imports will be cut substantially — but not entirely — with a new trade deal.
Terry Reilly, senior agricultural specialist at Marex in Chicago, said Trump’s comments eased pressure off of soybean prices, but not so much for soymeal and soyoil.
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“Products remain on the defensive, which is limiting rallies in (the soy) market,” Reilly said. “Volatility will always remain when you’re in a headline-trading environment … The fundamentals haven’t changed all that much. We’re just watching these outside commodity markets, which should continue to influence grain and oilseed markets.”
However, he added that the trade is looking more closely at the rapid pace of plantings for corn, soybeans and spring wheat. The USDA reported, as of April 20, 12 per cent of the U.S. corn crop, eight per cent of the soybean crop and 17 per cent of the spring wheat crop were planted. The figures are two, three and five points above their five-year averages, respectively.
Reilly said corn’s planting pace was “impressive” due to the larger amount of corn acres to be planted this year compared to 2024. He added that wheat export demand is slow, but tighter global supply as well as dry conditions in the Black Sea and the U.S. could give prices a boost.
Soybeans are also on track to be planted “in a timely manner” after corn plantings and, in some cases, during.
“When you get cool temperatures in a good window in April, (farmers) will grow soybeans as well,” Reilly explained. “That might be weighing on new crop prices relative to old crop. Old crop supplies are going to tighten up if we continue to see these producers sell. I think beans are going to be a little bit hard to find in the summer months if crush margins are as strong as they are right now.”
He expects corn and soybean prices to stay put in the short-term, with wheat prices moving upward.
