Reuters – As spring planting continues in Ukraine, its agriculture ministry and consultancy APK-Inform, issued their respective crop forecasts. The reports were issued just as Ukraine was still in a bitter cold snap that brought snow to most parts of the country.
Why it matters: Ukraine is a major player on the world wheat export market, with production there influencing global trade flows.
“April’s cold weather has affected the sowing season – it has actually stopped for a week. Compared to last year, 200,000 hectares less land has been sown so far,” first deputy farm minister Taras Vysotskiy commented to the state news agency Ukrinform.
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As of April 11, 1.25 million hectares of spring crops were planted, comprised of 612,200 hectares of barley, with wheat at 141,100, peas at 182,800 and oats at 106,100.
APK-Inform
Meanwhile, APK-Inform projected Ukraine’s grain production for 2025/26 to grow 7.5 per cent at 57.52 million tonnes. Of that, the corn crop is to expand 17.8 per cent at 29.16 million tonnes, but wheat is to slip 1.2 per cent at 21.50 million. The barley is expected to come in at 5.30 million tonnes.
The consultancy noted the country’s ag ministry had yet to issues its grain outlook for 2025/26, but said the seeded area is to be about the same as 2024/25.
As for Ukraine’s oilseeds, APK-Inform provided mixed projections. On the plus side, the sunflower crop for 2025/26 is to improve 13.7 per cent at 15.16 million tonnes. Also, sunflower oil production is to increase 13.9 per cent at 6.5 million tonnes. However, Ukraine’s soybean output is to contract 7.7 per cent at 5.90 million tonnes and its rapeseed harvest is to shrink 8.4 per cent at 3.40 million tonnes.
In terms of exports, APK-Inform projected increases in the grains, with overall exports rising 11.4 per cent from 2024/25 at 42.58 million tonnes. Outbound movements of corn are to jump 19.5 per cent in 2025/26 at 24.50 million tonnes, with wheat up 1.7 per cent at 15 million.
The consultancy estimated sunflower seed exports to be up 27.3 per cent at 140,000 tonnes, but the seed’s oil exports to improve 15.8 per cent at 6.17 million tonnes. However, those for soybeans are to slip 1.1 per cent at 3.56 million tonnes and rapeseed is to drop 13.4 per cent at 2.72 million.
Ukraine’s 2025/26 ending stocks are to see total grain bump up 2.3 per cent at 4.52 million tonnes, according to APK-Inform. The carryover for corn to jump 19.3 per cent at 1.36 million tonnes and that for wheat is to slip 1.8 per cent at 1.10 million tonnes.
On the oilseed side, the consultancy estimated sunflower seeds ending stocks to fall 13.6 per cent at 114,000 tonnes while those for the oil are to jump 14 per cent at 179,000 tonnes. The carryout for Ukraine’s soybeans was projected to climb 4.8 per cent at 132,000 tonnes, while that for rapeseed is to drop 10.5 per cent at 17,000 tonnes.
