AAFC makes changes in July estimates

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Published: July 23, 2024

Photo: iStock

Glacier FarmMedia—Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) made a handful of changes to its July balance sheet released on July 22, compared to the month before.

Based on data from Statistics Canada, AAFC raised the seeded area for durum wheat by 22,239 acres at 6.365 million for 2024-25. Projected durum projection was increased from 5.655 million tonnes in the June estimates to 6.30 million in AAFC’s most recent figures. Exports increased 300,000 tonnes to 4.8 million, while feed waste and dockage rose 245,000 tonnes to 662,000, leaving a 100,000-tonne rise in estimated carryout at 800,000 tonnes. The projected carryout for 2023-24 was 350,000 tonnes.

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However, AAFC cut its seeded area in 2024-25 for all other types of wheat by 299,000 acres at 20.401 million. Production rose by 191,000 tonnes at 28.937 million. Exports moved up by 50,000 tonnes at 20.55 million, while feed and dockage waste also increased by 141,000 tonnes at 4.676 million. As a result, ending stocks remained at 2.45 million tonnes, 100,000 more than in 2023-24.

Projected canola area for 2024-25 rose by 612,821 acres from the June estimate at 22.007 million acres with production increasing by 528,000 tonnes at 18.628 million. Exports went up by 100,000 tonnes at seven million, while feed and dockage waste added 28,000 tonnes at 327,000. The projected ending stocks were down 400,000 tonnes at 2.1 million, 350,000 tonnes more than the 2023-24 carryout.

Barley area for 2024-25 was trimmed by 748,729 acres at 6.385 million, while production was down 988,000 tonnes at 8.508 million. Exports were down 100,000 tonnes at 2.95 million, while feed and dockage waste were projected to decline by 534,000 tonnes at 5.079 million. Ending stocks would fall by 350,000 tonnes to 600,000, compared to 650,000 tonnes in 2023-24.

Soybean area for 2024-25 rose 160,619 acres from the June report at 5.743 million acres. As a result, estimated production increased by 202,000 tonnes at 7.102 million. Exports were raised by 50,000 tonnes at five million, while feed and dockage waste was up 2,000 tonnes at 348,000. As a result, ending stocks were up 150,000 tonnes at 520,000. Soybean carryout at the end of 2023-24 was 415,000 tonnes.

About the author

Adam Peleshaty – MarketsFarm

Adam Peleshaty – MarketsFarm

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Adam Peleshaty writes for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

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