Floods wreaking havoc across much of central Europe are already cutting into projections for next year’s European grain and oilseed crops, after adverse weather during the 2024 growing season left the region with some of its smallest crops in decades.
Production: Total European and United Kingdom grain production for 2024 was pegged at 280.3 million tonnes by European crops association COCERAL, which is down by about 16 million tonnes from an earlier estimate and short of last year’s 294.2 million-tonne forecast.
Excessive moisture last fall cut into winter cereal seeding, while heat and dryness during the growing season was followed by more untimely moisture at harvest. Wheat production (excluding durum) in Europe and the U.K. for 2024 is estimated to be down by 14 million tonnes on the year at 126 million tonnes, while the rapeseed crop at 18.1 million tonnes would be three million tonnes short of what grew last year.
Read Also
Canadian canola prices hinge on rain forecast
Canola markets took a good hit during the week ending July 11, 2025, on the thought that the Canadian crop will yield well despite dry weather.
Production estimates have also been revised lower from Ukraine, which would normally be a major exporter to Europe.
What it means: European rapeseed is trading at a sizeable premium over Canadian canola, and that spread makes Canadian canola more attractively priced for European buyers. Detailed data is not yet available, but Canada has already shipped 42,300 tonnes of canola out of Thunder Bay during the first six weeks of the 2024-25 marketing year.
Those shipments are thought to be destined for Europe. No canola had moved from Thunder Bay by this time last year, and market participants anticipate the early business is a sign of more to come.
Canola exports out of the West Coast are up even more on the year. Total canola movement through the first month and a half, of 1.4 million tonnes, is about three times higher than the 2023-24 pace. However, uncertainty over the viability of that demand amid a mounting trade dispute with China means other trade avenues will be important to watch.
