MarketsFarm — Ahead of the July world supply and demand estimates from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), due out Tuesday, the department’s attaché in Beijing put forth its forecast changes.
The attaché lowered ending stocks for China’s new-crop soybeans and rapeseed, while it increased the carryover for new-crop corn and wheat, in reports released by USDA on Friday.
The attaché explained that soybean and rapeseed output in China is apparently set to increase in 2022-23 due to “high domestic prices and government policies incentivizing oilseed production.” Meanwhile, slowed economic growth because of repeated COVID-19 lockdowns and higher global commodity prices have put a dampener on projections.
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For the current and forthcoming marketing years the attaché lowered its call on soybean ending stocks for China. For 2021-22, the carryover was estimated at more than 28.5 million tonnes, 7.3 per cent less than USDA’s official projection. When it came to the following year, the attaché placed the carryout at about 29.53 million tonnes, down 6.4 per cent from the department’s current call. That’s because the attaché forecast smaller beginning stocks, less production despite more acres being seeded, and a slightly lower total consumption.
The carryover for China’s rapeseed was projected by the attaché to increase by almost 17 per cent in 2021-22 at 1.23 million tonnes based on a greater-than-expected crush. For 2022-23, the attaché projected a reduced carryout of 1.05 million tonnes, predicated on increased domestic consumption.
When comes to corn, the attaché increased ending stocks for 2021-22 Chinese wheat by 3.3 per cent at 217.24 million tonnes, based largely upon bigger beginning stocks. The latter was increased 3.4 per cent at more than 212.7 million tonnes. Conversely, that altered the beginning stocks for 2022-23, bringing them to 217.24 million tonnes. That expanded the year’s ending stocks by about two per cent at 208.22 million tonnes.
As for wheat, the attaché trimmed a little off of 2021-22 ending stocks, forecasting them to be 141.72 million tonnes. That’s based on smaller beginning stocks and slightly reduced imports. However, the carryout for 2022-23 is three per cent more than what USDA has projected. The attaché placed them at 145.82 million tonnes, with smaller beginning stocks, less imports and reduced domestic consumption.
