Financial markets were in a negative mood today and stayed that way for the entire day ending with losses across the board
Grains were mixed as pre report yield estimates started to float around the trade today and that sparked some interest particularly in beans with the expectation of tight carry out stocks and reduced yield estimates for new crop. Add to that the fact that China bought another 110,000t of beans today and you have a very bullish bean market going into tomorrows report.
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Manitoba Crop Report: More scattered rains across the province
More scattered showers across Manitoba helped crops advance in their development during the week ended July 13, 2025.
Canola found some life today as well with the surge in beans, a falling Canadian dollar and forecasts for frost later next week in Northern Saskatchewan all adding fuel to the fire that pushed canola up solidly today.
The US dollar fell a tenth of a cent today.
The Canadian dollar fell almost a full cent today to close at .9078 US.
The Dow Jones Sept quote closed down 90 points at 9230.
Crude oil was down $1.15 a barrel today to close at $69.45 a barrel US.
Corn finished even to up 2 cents a bushel today.
Beans ended up 26 cents a bushel to 46 cents a bushel today.
Wheat closed down 5 cents a bushel to 9 cents a bushel on the various US exchanges.
Minneapolis Sept wheat futures closed down 6.2 cents a bushel today.
Canola finished up strong with gains of $13 a tonne to $18 a tonne today.
Barley closed even to close at $139.70 a tonne.
The next couple of weeks are going to be the most important of the year from the markets perspective, as we approach harvest. Key yield estimate reports from the USDA and Stats Canada will set the tone for production and weather concerns and calls for frost are going to be the wild cards depending on severity.
Futures markets are going to be very sensitive to any news or weather events over the next month that could reduce production or quality, so I expect we will continue to see a bit of a roller coaster over the next few weeks.
Here are some facts from the Canola Council of Canada on hail damage loss:
Any leaf area destroyed will result in seed yield loss.
Seed yield losses in canola are approximately 25 per cent of leaf area lost. If leaf defoliation is 50 per cent, then yield loss would be approximately 12.5 per cent.
Seed yield loss will depend on both percent leaves and branches lost. For example, if canola has 60 per cent lost branches seven days into flowering, seed yield loss is estimated at 18 per cent, whereas 21 days into flowering, yield loss would be an estimated 60 per cent.
If hail strikes late, such as during pod filling or ripening, plant recovery is not possible. The time needed to develop new growth, flowers and mature is limited before a killing frost.
If injury occurs at the ripening stage then it depends directly on the loss of branches, individual pods and seed knocked out of pods. Severe hail losses have occurred in canola swaths.
To estimate damage to seeds inside a pod, hold up the pod to the sun and look inside for damaged kernels. Count the damaged kernels and come up with a percentage.
