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Canberra is close to an agreement with Beijing that would allow Australian suppliers to ship five trial canola cargoes to China, sources familiar with the matter said, a move towards ending a years-long freeze in the trade.

The outlook for canola futures on the Intercontinental Exchange appears to be on a downward slide, said Bill Craddock, a Manitoba-based trader and farmer.

Trade discussions between Canada and the United States as well as dry weather have driven canola’s rally on the Intercontinental Exchange during the week ended July 2, 2025.

Canola prices could shift up or down in the coming weeks due to uncertainty, said Jerry Klassen, analyst with Resilient Capital in Winnipeg

With the speculative fund selling and relatively decent crop conditions on the Canadian Prairies, a broker said canola futures have little option but to continue falling back.

Crops in Manitoba continue to develop at a good pace despite a lack of rainfall in some parts of the province, reported Manitoba Agriculture on July 2.

With exports of Canadian canola still going strong in 2024/25, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada readjusted its estimates in its June supply and demand report.