It looks more and more like the current weather pattern will continue at least into early October, with the main storm track staying to our north and a secondary storm track staying to our south. For the first part of this forecast, high pressure is going to slide by to our northeast, bringing plenty of sunshine along with daytime highs in the upper teens to around 20 C. This high looks like it should keep an area of low pressure well to our south on Thursday, although some clouds might work into extreme southern regions, with maybe a shower over eastern areas.

The models are then forecasting another strong area of low pressure to develop to our northwest and track through the southern territories. This will help to develop a fairly strong southerly flow late in the week and into the early part of the weekend, which should push daytime highs back into the low to mid-20s. We might see some clouds along with the odd shower on Sunday as a cold front pushes through, along with a weak area of low pressure tracking through North Dakota.

Next week’s forecast is a little uncertain as the weather models are developing a fairly large area of low pressure over the central U.S. on Monday, then tracking to the east-northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. At the same time, high pressure will be building in from the northwest. Currently it looks like most of the precipitation from this system will be kept to our south, but the system does bear watching. The best chance for any rainfall from this system looks to be late Monday and into Tuesday morning over extreme southern and eastern regions.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 9 to 21 C; lows, -2 to 7 C.

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After a cool start to this week and another strong area of low pressure just clipping our region to the south, it looks like things will settle down for a few days. Overall, though, our weather pattern looks to stay fairly active, as the main storm track appears to be taking shape across the northern U.S.

Cool high pressure will build into our region on Wednesday, bringing sunny skies and high temperatures in the low to mid-teens. Thursday and Friday’s forecasts are a little tough as another low is forecast to track near or just south of Manitoba during this time. It’s hard to say if the high to our north and east will win out, or if we’ll see clouds and showers move in. Either way, temperatures shouldn’t be too bad, with highs in the mid-teens if it is cloudy, or upper teens to low 20s if we see more sunshine.

The long weekend’s forecast is also a tough one, as it looks like the battle between cool high pressure to our north and an active storm track to our south will continue. Currently, it looks like Saturday will be a nice day, with partly cloudy skies and highs in the upper teens to low 20s. The weather models are having a tough time with another low-pressure system forecast to develop over the weekend, so confidence in this part of the forecast is low. It looks likely that we’ll see some showers move in on Sunday, with fairly cool air moving in on Monday and Tuesday and highs only expected to be in the low teens.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 13 to 25 C; lows, 0 to 9 C.

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For the first half of this forecast period, we’ll be dealing with a large area of low pressure slowly sliding up from the southwest. This system looks to have a fair bit of moisture to work with, something we haven’t really seen so far this spring. It will also have a good deal of warm air with it, so I don’t see any chance of snow with this system, even on the cool back end.

We should begin to see and feel the effects of this system on Wednesday, with increasing clouds and showers, along with the possibility of late-day thundershowers. The weather models are having a tough time figuring out the exact track of this system and where most of the rain will fall, because of the convective nature of the system. That said, there will be a good chance of significant rain late Wednesday and through the day Thursday. It doesn’t look like it will be a continuous rain event, and not all regions will see significant rain, but expect some heavy amounts.

This low will move out quickly and by the weekend arctic high pressure will drop south, bringing clear skies and cooler temperatures. Daytime highs will be in the low to mid-teens, with overnight lows near the freezing mark on Saturday and Sunday morning.

Next week we should see temperatures warm as the high slides off to the East and low pressure begins to develop to our southwest once again. Expect highs to moderate towards the 20 C mark by Wednesday, then stay in the low 20s for highs during the remainder of the week.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 10 to 22 C; lows, -2 to +8 C.

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Arctic high pressure moved in as expected behind last weekend’s low and, as predicted, the cold high quickly moved off to the East. A strong ridge of high pressure is forecast to build across central North America during the first half of this forecast period, thanks to a strong surface high over the eastern U.S. This ridge should bring temperatures that will likely surpass the usual temperature range for this time of the year, with highs over low-snow-covered regions expected to make it toward the high single digits by Friday. Areas that have significant snow cover will likely only see highs around the +4 C mark.

Over the weekend, a low passing by well to our north will drag a cold front southward, which will bring an end to the near-record warm temperatures. Overall, the weather pattern looks to continue on the quiet side, with weather models showing no major weather systems expected to impact our region between now and Christmas.

The models show a strong polar low anchoring itself over the Gulf of Alaska, along with an area of high pressure across the U.S. southeast. This should keep us high and dry for at least the next couple of weeks. Of course, now that I’ve made this prediction, you know Mother Nature will eventually make us pay for it; it’s just a matter of time.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -17 to -2 C; lows, -27 to -10 C.

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Arctic high pressure building in behind the strong eastern low will keep our skies mainly clear to begin this forecast period. Along with the clear skies will come cold temperatures, with highs struggling to make it to around -15 C. Depending on snow cover, overnight lows will be in the -20 to -25 C range, with the coldest temperatures occurring where the snow is the deepest.

Confidence in the weather models is not that high going into the weekend and beyond, as they try to get a handle on what is looking to become a more active pattern. We could see some snow and blowing snow on Friday as a clipper system moves rapidly across the southern Prairies. Another arctic high will drop down behind this low, bringing clear skies and more cold weather for the weekend. This high will quickly move off to the southeast over the weekend and by early next week we should begin to see temperatures moderate as the winds become more southerly.

We’ll have to watch for the possible development of a fairly strong storm system over the central U.S. around the middle of next week. Currently, the models are keeping most of the energy from this system to our south as arctic high pressure lingers to our north. Once again, confidence in this part of the forecast is low, but it does bear watching.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -14 to 1 C; lows, -24 to -8 C.

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For this forecast period it looks like our current up-and-down pattern will continue. The weather models show us in a predominantly northwesterly flow for most of this forecast interval. With this flow we’ll see weak areas of low pressure ripple down from the northwest every couple of days. As each of these systems drop southeastward, we’ll see some warmer air try to move in before a reinforcing shot of cold air drops southward behind the low.

Each of these lows will only bring a slight chance for snow, with maybe only a quick shot of one or two centimetres. The best chance for measurable snow will come with a system expected on Thursday or Friday. It doesn’t look like we’ll see a return to really cold temperatures during this forecast period, with highs on most days expected to be around -8 C and overnight lows around -14 C, depending on cloud cover.

Looking further ahead, the weather models show a significant storm system coming in off the Pacific and bringing some heavy snows to the Prairies around the middle of next week. There is not a lot of confidence in this part of the forecast, though, especially when it comes to the exact track of this system, but it is something to keep an eye on. The models are in good agreement with bringing some of the coldest weather so far this winter in behind this system, as a large arctic high builds south. As usual, we’ll have to wait and see just what unfolds.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -15 to 0 C; lows, -25 to -8 C.

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This forecast period looks as if it will start off warm and fairly active and then transition into a drier and hotter pattern. The weather models show thunderstorms developing to our south and west sometime on Wednesday, then drifting northeastward in the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Isolated areas of heavy rain are possible once again with these storms.

Thursday and Friday look as if they will be partly cloudy, with near-seasonable temperatures as a weak area of low pressure slowly slides by to our north. There could be the odd shower thrown into the mix on these two days as well, with the best chances being in the Interlake and over eastern areas.

Over the long weekend the weather models show a ridge of high pressure developing to our west. This should bring mainly sunny skies along with increasing temperatures. Look for highs in the mid- to upper 20s to start the weekend, warming to around 30 C by Monday. This ridge of high pressure is then forecast to push eastward during the week, which would allow temperatures to warm even more, with highs by Wednesday in the low to mid-30s.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 20 to 30 C; lows, 8 to 17 C.

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On Wednesday it looks like there will be another area of low pressure pushing through southern and central Manitoba. With cold air still in place most, if not all, of the precipitation from this system will fall as wet snow, but luckily it doesn’t look as if there will be much, if any, accumulation.

Weak high pressure will rapidly slide south behind this system on Thursday and we’ll likely see a southerly flow of milder air begin Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will be warmest over western regions with daytime highs in the +10 C range. Farther east, expect highs to be around +5 C. On Friday, weak high pressure will remain to our south and an area of low pressure will be developing along the coast of central B.C. This will combine to continue the pull of milder air into our region. The weather models forecast high temperatures by Saturday to be in the 12 to 16 C range over southern regions and the 8 to 12 C range over central areas. Temperatures are then forecast to continue warming, with highs of 16 to 20 C forecast for extreme southern regions on Sunday. With a fairly deep and widespread snowpack still in place, I have a hard time seeing temperatures getting quite this mild.

By the end of the weekend and into the start of next week, the models show some of the energy from the western low moving across the north-central Prairies. It looks like we’ll see a quick shot of cooler air on Monday and into Tuesday once this system passes by. The models then show warmer air moving back in by the middle of next week, but forgive me for saying: I will believe it when I see it!

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 6 to 20 C; lows, -4 to 6 C. Probability of precipitation falling as snow: 20 per cent.

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The area of low pressure that looked to bring some stormy weather around Wednesday of this week came in off the Pacific as predicted, but took a much more northerly route. This prevented the system from tapping into a lot of moisture, but central and northern regions will still see some measurable snow as it moves through. Southern regions, depending on the timing of the system, may only see a few showers or flurries as warm air moves in ahead of the system.

Cool arctic high pressure will try to build in behind this system on Thursday and Friday, dropping daytime highs back down to around the freezing mark. Over the weekend, weather models have been fairly consistent at bringing a large area of low pressure in from the Pacific. How they handle this storm system once it pushes in is another story. Currently, some of the energy from this system is forecast to move across the southern Prairies over the weekend, bringing clouds and a few flurries. Cool arctic high pressure will sit just to our north, and the models show this high pressure reasserting itself late on Sunday and into Monday.

In the meantime, a strong area of low pressure will develop from the energy left over from the Pacific low. This system will develop over the western U.S. and then push off to the east-northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. It currently looks like all the energy from this system will remain well to our south, leaving us with clear skies and cool conditions.

Once this system moves by, the second half of next week looks to see some melting temperatures finally move in. The models have been fairly consistent with this warm-up, showing temperatures in the +5 to +8 C range by next Thursday or Friday.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -1 to 11 C; lows, -12 to 1 C.

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Keep this in mind for this forecast period, as the models continue to be all over the place. The models start this forecast period with an area of low pressure moving in off the Pacific and into central Canada on Wednesday. Most of the energy with this system will move through the northern Prairies during the second half of this week. South of this low we’ll see a warm front try and push through. This front will bring milder temperatures along with a chance for some light snow. Cool high pressure is then forecast to slide in behind this over the weekend.

Next week is when things become interesting. The weather models keep trying to develop a significant winter storm that impacts southern and eastern regions starting around next Monday or Tuesday. Confidence in this is very low. For over a week now the models have been developing a strong storm system and then weakening the storm 24 hours later, only to redevelop it on a different day once again 24 hours later! The latest model run shows the storm developing over Colorado on Monday and then moving into our region on Tuesday, bringing snow and blowing snow.

While the odds on seeing this storm system develop are really low, it’s something to watch, as any addition of significant snow could have a dramatic effect on this spring’s flood forecast.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -10 to 3 C; lows, -23 to -5 C.

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