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Weather pattern becoming more active

Issued: Monday, Nov. 24, 2014 – Covering: Nov. 26 – Dec. 3, 2014

Last week’s forecast didn’t turn out exactly as the weather models predicted. A large storm system moving across the central Prairies last weekend washed out as it moved into Manitoba, and was replaced by a second system that was forecast to move by us to our south. This system became much stronger than forecast and, in turn, changed the rest of the forecast.

Arctic high pressure building in behind the strong eastern low will keep our skies mainly clear to begin this forecast period. Along with the clear skies will come cold temperatures, with highs struggling to make it to around -15 C. Depending on snow cover, overnight lows will be in the -20 to -25 C range, with the coldest temperatures occurring where the snow is the deepest.

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Confidence in the weather models is not that high going into the weekend and beyond, as they try to get a handle on what is looking to become a more active pattern. We could see some snow and blowing snow on Friday as a clipper system moves rapidly across the southern Prairies. Another arctic high will drop down behind this low, bringing clear skies and more cold weather for the weekend. This high will quickly move off to the southeast over the weekend and by early next week we should begin to see temperatures moderate as the winds become more southerly.

We’ll have to watch for the possible development of a fairly strong storm system over the central U.S. around the middle of next week. Currently, the models are keeping most of the energy from this system to our south as arctic high pressure lingers to our north. Once again, confidence in this part of the forecast is low, but it does bear watching.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -14 to 1 C; lows, -24 to -8 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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