Models continue to bring in warm weather

After several weeks of seeing the warmer weather only a week or so away, it finally looks like it will arrive! Is this going to spell an end to our record spring cold snap? I’m not totally convinced of that yet.

On Wednesday it looks like there will be another area of low pressure pushing through southern and central Manitoba. With cold air still in place most, if not all, of the precipitation from this system will fall as wet snow, but luckily it doesn’t look as if there will be much, if any, accumulation.

Weak high pressure will rapidly slide south behind this system on Thursday and we’ll likely see a southerly flow of milder air begin Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will be warmest over western regions with daytime highs in the +10 C range. Farther east, expect highs to be around +5 C. On Friday, weak high pressure will remain to our south and an area of low pressure will be developing along the coast of central B.C. This will combine to continue the pull of milder air into our region. The weather models forecast high temperatures by Saturday to be in the 12 to 16 C range over southern regions and the 8 to 12 C range over central areas. Temperatures are then forecast to continue warming, with highs of 16 to 20 C forecast for extreme southern regions on Sunday. With a fairly deep and widespread snowpack still in place, I have a hard time seeing temperatures getting quite this mild.

By the end of the weekend and into the start of next week, the models show some of the energy from the western low moving across the north-central Prairies. It looks like we’ll see a quick shot of cooler air on Monday and into Tuesday once this system passes by. The models then show warmer air moving back in by the middle of next week, but forgive me for saying: I will believe it when I see it!

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 6 to 20 C; lows, -4 to 6 C. Probability of precipitation falling as snow: 20 per cent.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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