“For the month of November, it looks like we’re off to a cold start for most of the Prairies. The western Prairies… had quite a significant winter storm,” Kehler said, noting another snowstorm already brewing for that part of the region.

“As we get later into the winter, December will probably be looking at this point, as a more normal month,” he added, calling for near normal amounts of precipitation, but becoming colder.

Kehler said the winter of 2022-23 will be marked by another La Nina, the third in as many years, which he stressed is highly unusual.

“Right now, that looks like in the early part of winter it will probably not have as much impact, but as we get later in the winter the impact looks like cold weather,” he said.

That he said should generate more snow — something the western half of the Prairies is in dire need of, due to dry conditions going into fall.

“It’s probably going to be a snowy winter again, but I doubt it will be as snowy as last year,” Kehler said.

The Canadian Drought Monitor rated a lot of Alberta and Saskatchewan as being abnormally dry or in moderate or severe drought as of Sept. 30. One pocket centred on Swift Current, Sask. is in extreme drought; southern and northern areas of western Manitoba were abnormally dry.

Kehler also raised the strong likelihood of a major storm for the eastern Prairies by the end of the week of Nov. 6-12. After that, he expects active weather to calm down for a little while.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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Soybean futures finished narrowly mixed, caught between surging soyoil futures amid tightening world vegetable oil supplies, and slowing demand for soymeal, a hog feed ingredient.

Corn prices ended little changed ahead of the weekend.

Chicago Board of Trade May wheat settled down four cents at $6.38-1/2 per bushel after dipping to $6.37-1/2, its lowest since Feb. 12 (all figures US$).

Wheat futures fell as a winter storm was expected to bring snow, rain and high winds through Sunday to the Rocky Mountains and Plains. Winter wheat should benefit from the moisture as the crop emerges from dormancy and begins its key growth phase.

“Wheat prices reflect expectations for improving weather here in the States, along with soft export demand and weak seasonal signals,” Arlan Suderman, StoneX chief commodities economist, said in a client note.

CBOT May corn settled up 1/2 cent at $5.39 a bushel.

In the soy complex, May soybeans ended down 1/4 cent at $14.13-1/4 a bushel while soyoil futures set life-of-contract highs and rival Malaysian palm oil futures hit a 13-year top.

Meanwhile, CBOT May soymeal fell below its 100-day moving average, triggering sell-stops, on fears that disease outbreaks in China’s huge hog herd will hurt demand for the feed ingredient.

Soybean and corn futures were underpinned by uncertainty about the size of the harvests in South America, with dry conditions threatening Argentina’s crops and wet weather slowing Brazil’s soy harvest.

“We are still trying to get our arms around what is happening in Latin America,” said Dan Basse, president of AgResource Co. in Chicago.

The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange this week lowered its estimate of Argentina’s soybean harvest to 44 million tonnes and its corn forecast to 45 million tonnes, below its previous forecasts of 46 million tonnes for each crop.

But several forecasters have increased estimates for Brazil’s ongoing soybean harvest, despite rain delays.

— Reporting for Reuters by Julie Ingwersen in Chicago; additional reporting by Gus Trompiz in Paris and Naveen Thukral in Singapore.

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In Iowa, crop prospects swung wildly from field to field, according to scouts on the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour’s fourth and final day.

Mark Bernard, a Minnesota-based agronomist on the tour, made eight stops in northeastern Iowa and found corn yield potential ranging from 81 to 212 bushels per acre. Last year’s tour average in the same area was 184.66 bu./ac. and the three-year average was 187.21.

Along with wind damage, dry conditions are also stressing Iowa’s crops.

“There are big cracks in the ground,” Bernard said.

But in southern Minnesota, where weather woes plagued farmers last year, conditions improved dramatically over parts of Iowa.

“It’s like a switch got flipped,” said Jeff Wilson, a crop tour leader and senior market analyst for trade publication Pro Farmer.

Scouts found corn yield potential averaging a massive 219 bu./ac. at 14 stops in six southwestern Minnesota counties, nearly 40 per cent higher than last year’s crop tour average in the same area and about 27 per cent above the three-year tour average.

The tour does not estimate soybean yields, but instead calculates the number of soy pods in a three-foot-by-three-foot square to gauge yield potential. In those Minnesota counties, soybeans averaged 1,192 pods, above the year-ago and three-year averages.

Scouts on a second Minnesota route made 18 stops in six south-central Minnesota counties and calculated an average corn yield potential of 202 bu./ac., while soybean pod counts averaged at 1,116 pods, also firmly up from the area’s year-ago and three-year averages.

The tour is scheduled to release state yield forecasts for Iowa and Minnesota later on Thursday.

— Reporting for Reuters by P.J. Huffstutter and Julie Ingwersen in Chicago.

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Dry conditions in the region could lead to price increases for corn and soybeans.

“Across northern Illinois we definitely need a good rain. We’re getting very dry,” he said, noting precipitation has often been forecast, only to not materialize.

Capinegro said the dryness could affect soybean crops especially, as they require rain to finish developing prior to harvest.

The derecho wind storm that blew through Iowa last week damaged upward of eight million acres of corn, which is about half of the state’s corn acres, he said. Overall, the derecho affected nearly 38 million acres in the Midwest.

The weakness in the U.S. dollar has provided a bit of a boost to prices. On the U.S. dollar index, the greenback was at 92.510, as it loses ground to other major world currencies.

Another factor that soon could come into play on the CBOT is the findings from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour. “That’s what the market is really looking at,” Capinegro said.

So far corn yields in South Dakota were estimated to be 179.2 bushels per acre, with Ohio corn at 167.7 bu./ac. Nebraska was forecast to be 175.2 and Indiana at 179.8, according to reports.

Soybean pod counts on the tour were 1,250.6 in South Dakota, with Ohio at 1,155.7, Nebraska at 1,297.9 and Indiana at 1,281.1. The tour wraps up Thursday.

On a side note, Capinegro said the nomination of former U.S. Vice-President Joe Biden by the Democratic Party had no effect on the markets.

“It would’ve been if he didn’t get nomination,” he laughed.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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Iowa officials on Tuesday warned much of the crop in the path of the Aug. 10 storm would not be harvested. Some 14 million acres, or 57 per cent of Iowa’s area planted, were impacted.

Iowa corn is key for both commodity markets and global food supply chains. A big loss in the top growing state could eat into a record-large national corn forecast at a time when China is buying more of the grain.

About 52 per cent of all the corn produced in Iowa was growing on farmland affected by the derecho, according to a Gro Intelligence analysis of satellite, environmental, and government data.

In an unlikely, but worst-case, scenario where none of the corn is salvaged, it would mean the loss of about 1.38 billion bushels of corn, according to Gro, an agricultural data and AI company.

That would cut the U.S. Agriculture Department’s current forecast of U.S. farmers harvesting a record 15.278 billion bushels of corn this fall.

Furthermore, drought conditions are also stressing crops in Iowa this growing season, according to scouts surveying western and north-central Iowa on the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour’s third day.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor, prepared by a consortium of climatologists, showed nearly 80 per cent of Iowa was abnormally dry as of Aug. 11 and nearly 19 per cent was in a “severe drought.”

While parts of western Iowa showed robust corn and soybean crops, some scouts saw a drop in corn yield potentials in the west-central and central counties hit by both drought and high winds.

Corn yield potential averaged 162.4 bushels per acre at eight stops in west-central Iowa counties — below last year’s crop tour average in those areas of 192.71 bu./ac. and the three-year tour average of 186.28 bu./ac.

A second leg averaged corn yield potential at 167.7 bu./ac. in five stops in central Iowa — also below last year’s and the three-year averages.

“Some of this, you can harvest,” said Sherman Newlin, a crop scout and Illinois farmer. “Some of this, you won’t be able to.”

Exactly how much of Iowa’s corn crop is lost won’t be known until combines start to roll in next month, said agronomists. But corn yields in the affected areas would be down about 50 per cent from their pre-storm expectations, according to an estimate from Iowa State University Extension field specialist Virgil Schmitt.

“We have got everything from corn that is laying completely flat — that is basically a total loss — to corn that has not been affected at all, to everything in between,” Schmitt said.

— Reporting for Reuters by P.J. Huffstutter and Mark Weinraub in Chicago; additional reporting from Julie Ingwersen in Chicago.

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August has been one of the driest on record throughout the Midwest during a crucial period in soybean development. Dryness could trim supplies of U.S. soybeans, which are cheaper than oilseeds from other exporting countries.

“This dryness is taking the top end off of yields, at a time when U.S. soybeans are 80 cents cheaper at the Gulf than they are in Brazil,” said Jim Gerlach, president of A/C Trading.

The most active Chicago Board of Trade soybean contract added 16-1/2 cents to $9.15-1/4 a bushel, the highest since Jan. 22 (all figures US$).

CBOT corn rose 6-3/4 cents to end at $3.44-3/4 a bushel after reaching $3.45, the highest since July 10, while wheat added 16-3/4 cents to 5.26-1/4 a bushel.

A storm last week packed hurricane-force winds that impacted about 38 million acres of farmland across the U.S. Midwest, flattening crops and destroying grain bins. President Donald Trump approved emergency aid for Iowa, the top corn-growing state, on Monday.

Corn futures climbed as much of the U.S. Midwest attempts to assess the damage, and traders increasingly bet last week’s USDA report predicting a record large corn crop was too optimistic.

“People looked at (the numbers) and believed that the acres aren’t as big as what the government is forecasting,” said Don Roose, president of U.S. Commodities. “Over the weekend, we were supposed to get some rain, and the forecast has turned drier.”

Wheat made its biggest gain since July 15 as exporters sold 130,000 tonnes of hard red winter wheat, bound for unknown destinations, according to the Agriculture Department.

— Reporting for Reuters by Christopher Walljasper; additional reporting by Nigel Hunt in London and Naveen Thukral in Singapore.

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The crop outlooks, which also included average yields for both corn and soybeans as the largest on record, topped trade expectations.

USDA also raised its ending stocks view for both crops despite bumping its export forecast for corn and soybeans by 75 million bushels following a spate of purchases by China.

“Even with the super-strong demand showing from China and others… It will be hard to move enough crop to materially dent the impending stocks, because there is so much of it around,” said Jack Scoville, analyst with the Price Futures Group in Chicago.

U.S. corn production was pegged at 15.278 billion bushels, based on an average yield of 181.8 bushels per acre. USDA also forecast soybean production of 4.425 billion bushels, based on an average yield of 53.3 bushels per acre.

The market shrugged off the massive harvest outlooks, with futures prices showing little response when the data was released.

USDA said the production estimates were based on conditions as of Aug. 1, and did not include the impact of a derecho storm that potentially impacted some 10 million acres of Iowa farmland.

“Even if you take the top end of the yield damage, that’s still not a game changer given how big this corn crop is expected to be,” said Don Roose of U.S. Commodities in West Des Moines, Iowa.

The government predicted corn end stocks at 2.756 billion bushels, up from its July forecast for 2.648 billion. That would be the biggest since 1988. Soybean stocks were seen at 610 million bushels, 185 million bushels higher than July.

— Mark Weinraub is a Reuters commodities correspondent in Chicago; additional reporting by P.J. Huffstutter.

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Soybean futures were steady, while wheat futures rose on technical buying.

Farmers are assessing the damage to their corn from hurricane-force winds that flattened some fields in Iowa and Illinois.

About 200 million to 400 million bushels may have been destroyed, said Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist for broker StoneX. He estimated the storm reduced the average U.S. yield by 2.5 to 4.5 bushels per acre.

The farm sector may suffer an even bigger hit from damage to steel bins needed to store corn from the autumn harvest, Suderman said.

“It’s still going to be a big harvest,” he said.

The most-active corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade closed up 1/2 cent at $3.23-1/2 a bushel after reaching a one-week high of $3.27-1/2 (all figures US$).

Traders said they will check weekly crop-condition ratings from the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Monday to help determine the extent of crop damage from the storm.

“We’re not going to get too excited or overanxious about rallying sharply because we don’t know how much damage has been done,” said Brian Hoops, president of broker Midwest Market Solutions.

Don Roose, president of Iowa-based brokerage U.S. Commodities, estimated that strong winds may have destroyed 50 million to 100 million bushels of corn. Harvest will be slow for farmers whose crops were blown over, he said.

“It always looks worse the first day,” Roose said. “Then it starts to come back up a little bit.”

Price movements were modest as markets consolidated following multi-week lows in the past few days and ahead of a monthly crop report due from USDA on Wednesday.

CBOT soybeans closed 1/4 cent higher at $8.73-3/2 a bushel. Wheat advanced four cents to $4.95 a bushel.

— Reporting for Reuters by Tom Polansek in Chicago; additional reporting by Gus Trompiz in Paris and Colin Packham in Sydney.

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So far this summer, the region’s weather has been highlighted by warmer and generally drier conditions in the eastern Prairies, while the western portion has been cooler with a great deal more precipitation, especially in the north.

“We’re still seeing fairly warm weather in Manitoba and cooler in Alberta with Saskatchewan in between,” said Scott Kehler of Weather Logics at Steinbach, Man.

“This will be the pattern for a little while longer,” said Drew Lerner of World Weather Inc. in Kansas City.

The two differ slightly as to when there might be a significant shift in Prairie weather. Lerner believes there will be more rain for the northern areas of the Prairies around late July to early August. Kehler leaned toward that shift not occurring until the end of summer and the beginning of autumn, noting summer is the most difficult time to forecast the weather.

Kehler said the severe thunderstorms southern Manitoba has experienced this summer are likely to continue.

“With more storms there will be pockets where there’s good to excessive moisture, while in areas not far away will be close to having a drought,” he said, citing Brandon and the surrounding area as one example.

As summer continues, Lerner predicted Alberta should see less rain, alleviating some of the very wet conditions parts of that province have been experiencing.

He said a ridge is likely to form over North Dakota and Montana, extending into southern Saskatchewan, which should result in the warm weather sticking around.

“There would be disturbances that move over top of the ridge and pass into Manitoba,” Lerner said.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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Areas of the Prairies have received significant rain lately, with flood warnings and high water advisories across southwestern and western Manitoba after several consecutive storms. It’s not yet clear to what extent crops will be damaged by the excessive moisture.

In northern Alberta, 25 to 75 millimetres of rain are expected to fall over the next several days.

Earlier in the week, Statistics Canada released estimates for planted acreage in Canada. Canola area was estimated at 20.778 million acres, which was at the higher end of trade estimates but still slightly below the 20.956 million acres seeded the previous year.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture has also released new planted acreage estimates. Soybean area in the U.S. was estimated at 83.8 million acres by USDA, a slight increase from previous estimates but below pre-report estimates. U.S. growers planted 76.1 million acres of soybeans in 2019.

— Marlo Glass reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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