The cumulative value of those outstanding shares determines the overall value or market capitalization of a company. Of course, those numbers change daily as share prices rise and fall with normal market fluctuations.

Those fluctuations are the result of profits each company reports and the outlook on their future fortunes along with the condition of the overall economy.

Stock markets slide as war upends global trade

In recent days, however, there is another consideration to factor into those market trends: the war in Iran. That gambit, initiated by the Trump administration and Israel’s leadership, has roiled markets around the world.

The U.S. Dow Jones had been riding pretty high despite a global economy upended by U.S. tariff policy.

The Dow had reached a yearly high average on Feb. 10 of more than 50,000. However, the Middle East war cratered it, causing the average to drop to slightly more than 46,000 by March 25. Almost every other market around the world saw significant declines as well.

At the same time, oil prices have reached higher than US$100 per barrel as global supply is choked down by roughly 20 per cent due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, impacting urea fertilizer prices as well.

Iran war strikes at agriculture

All of this has affected the input costs farmers will face this year, but it has also had a negative impact on the market value of farm machinery manufacturers.

As their profitability and share prices were starting to rise from a low point in the cyclical equipment demand cycle, the stock market declines have caused significant reductions in the valuation of those companies.

Here’s a look at just how much the market capitalization of those brands had fallen from mid-February to late March:

John Deere shares peaked just before the war on Feb. 24 at US$664. By March 25, those share values had dropped $82. With about 270.1 million shares outstanding, that represents a market capitalization loss of roughly $22 billion.

Agco shares peaked Feb. 13, and by March 25 had seen a $1.7 billion valuation reduction.

CNH Industrial, parent company of Case IH and New Holland, realized a $2.5 billion decline. In the automotive sector, the story is the same. For example, Ford saw its market value decline by more than $8 billion.

The situation is the same for nearly all publicly traded companies listed on many different stock exchanges around the world, meaning globally, companies collectively have probably lost trillions of dollars in market value, at least temporarily.

Financial market fallout

At the same time, financial analysts are sounding the alarm over the possibility of insider trading on the U.S. stock market related to government announcements, with unusual trading patterns observed that could have netted millions for unidentified entities just minutes before a White House announcement.

More than a few analysts are now questioning the integrity of the U.S. stock market as a result. Since the current administration took office, the ability of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to prosecute violations has reportedly been significantly reduced.

This comes at a time when foreign investment in U.S. government treasury bonds is declining, reportedly due to a lack of confidence in the administration. Those bonds help finance the government’s deficit. Without continued investment, the U.S. treasury will find itself in a bind.

Add to that the recent increase in global oil trades conducted in yuan, rather than the standard U.S. dollar transaction, which came to be known as the petro-dollar.

The so-called petro-dollar has helped prop up demand for U.S. currency for decades. That has been an economic boon for the United States, but the continued decline in U.S.-dollar oil transactions would lead to significantly reduced demand for greenbacks.

As a lack of confidence in the U.S. among investors, trading partners and allies grows, there could be a very rocky road ahead for the U.S. economy, and the valuations of U.S.-based corporations could continue to take a beating.

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Wilson saw himself as a historic peacemaker; instead he became an ironic phrasemaker. The Great War never brought an end to war, or even an end to that war. The then-raging Russian civil war continued for three more bloody years.

Moreover, historians now estimate that more than 100 million military personnel, civilians, and victims of genocide died in 20th-century warfare that followed The Great War’s “peace” in 1918.

Worse, all that horror occurred despite a century of new institutions — the League of Nations, the United Nations, NATO, SEATO, the European Union, the IMF, ASEAN, the G20, the G7, GATT, the WTO, the World Bank, and the OAS to name but a few — designed to prevent war, promote peace, and underwrite global prosperity.

Today, some of those same institutions are failing to prevent another age-old conflict: trade wars. For example, China and the U.S. are engaged in an epic trade battle that both continue to escalate. On Jan. 1, 2019, in fact, the current White House-imposed 10 per cent tariffs on $200 billion of imported Chinese goods will rise to 25 per cent, despite a brief flash of hope following the G20 meeting in Argentina.

How do you think China will respond?

But this trade fight, like most wars, isn’t only bilateral. At the recent Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting, a gathering of 21 nations that rim the Pacific Ocean, U.S. Vice-President Mike Pence and Chinese President Xi Jinping hammered each other for their mutual trade intransigence.

The hostility, the New York Times reported, was “reminiscent of the uncompromising rhetoric heard during the Cold War.” Peter O’Neill, prime minister of the meeting’s host nation, Papua New Guinea, said Xi and Pence’s words frightened all: “‘The entire world is worried.’”

The picture is equally troubling off America’s other coast. Presently, the European Union (EU) is looking at the twin barrels of a deadly trade fight with both Great Britain and the U.S. that, three short years ago, would have been seen as preposterous.

But, in June 2016, British voters narrowly approved “Brexit,” a vote to leave the European Union and, five months later, U.S. voters elevated Donald J. Trump to the presidency.

Both results signalled a rise of populist nationalism and a setback for the “liberal world order,” an international recognition by disparate nations to follow rules-based institutions (the UN, WTO, NATO…) to foster political stability and economic peace.

Like American farmers and ranchers caught in the Trump-Xi trade fight, British farmers now face an uncertain future as Prime Minister Theresa May beseeches her deeply split fellow Conservatives in Parliament to approve a “leave” deal recently negotiated with the EU.

It’s an uphill fight for the prime minister that may cost May her job whether she wins or loses. Her winning — leaving the EU, that is — will likely cost British farmers almost US$4 billion in ag payments they receive each year under the European Union’s Common Agricultural Policy.

American farmers and ranchers are also entering their own winter of discontent. Few market analysts or Land Grant economists have measured the actual rural cost of White House trade actions against Mexico, Canada, the EU, and China.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture, however, pegs the American tab at US$12 billion, the money it authorized the Commodity Credit Corp. to borrow to “mitigate the trade damages sustained” by tariff-slowed markets.

More troublesome than even the cost, however, is that there is no end in sight to the fights. Tough talk and more digging in have replaced any olive branch or kind gesture.

As such, these nearly worldwide trade battles eerily resemble the stalemated trench warfare that was the deadly hallmark of the First World War, the war that didn’t end all wars.

The Farm and Food File is published weekly in newspapers throughout the U.S. and Canada.

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It’s been 100 years since the first bombs – artillery shells, chemical weapons and hand grenades – dropped in battlefields across the Western Front. The most heavily hit region is undoubtedly West Flanders where Persyn lives.

Of the 1.4 billion bombs fired, it’s estimated that some 400 million to 500 million shells did not actually detonate. Of those, experts believe 10 to 15 per cent are chemical weapons, shells filled with toxic chemicals. To this day, those gases – some meant to kill, others meant to confuse or maim – remain, awaiting release.

During the First World War, the Germans and the French were the first to use phosgene gas as a chemical weapon. Persyn’s bomb, however, was of British design. A colourless gas, phosgene has an odour similar to musty hay. To detect it, though, concentration levels need to be 0.4 parts per million. And at that level, it can be deadly.

Immediately after the gas was released, Persyn’s eyes and lungs began to burn. He knew he had to move. If he passed out, it could be hours before someone found him.

Persyn didn’t get away unscathed, though. His lungs and eyes burned, and he said he felt ‘funny’ – not dizzy, but funny. “I immediately felt that I had something in my system,” he said.

Persyn knew he needed medical attention – and fast – but he couldn’t reach his wife, so he called his daughter who works as a nurse in Ypres. She came immediately. He remained at the hospital, where he was put on oxygen, for a day and night. Normal blood oxygen levels are between 95 and 100 per cent, says Persyn. “My blood oxygen level was 88… 75 is deadly.”

Persyn knows he is lucky. Phosgene is highly toxic and meant to kill. Others in the region haven’t been so lucky, though. Unexploded munitions around Ypres have killed a total of 358 people since 1918. Another 535 have been injured.

On the way to the hospital, Persyn called the police to inform them of the bomb. A special Belgian military squad, known as DOVO, is tasked with collecting unexploded munitions in Belgium. They can’t, however, be reached directly. Farmers – for it’s mostly farmers who find the shells – must first call the police, who are trained to identify most bombs.

Depending on urgency, the disposal experts will come almost immediately. Their responsibility is collection; they do not actively search for unexploded shells.

Lieutenant D. Gunst, who works with the special tactical unit in Langemark-Poelkapelle, Belgium, says the army simply isn’t organized to do that.

On average, DOVO receives 3,000 calls a year that lead to the removal of some 300 tonnes of munitions. According to First Sergeant Gaetan Algoet, though, last year they received an incredible 4,025 calls. With a staff of just over 300 – most of whom are not explosive ordnance disposal qualified – it’s a big job.

In Belgium, unexploded munitions are found nearly every day, most commonly between March and May during spring planting, and in the fall during harvest, says Gunst. Since 1918, the squad has identified 90,000 bombs. It’s an ongoing issue with no end in sight. “In my lifetime no one will see the end of the problem,” says Gunst.

In the field, identification is limited to the eye. Once collected, the team takes munitions back to the base and sorts them by hand on an ID platform. It’s not possible to know for certain if some bombs contain chemicals. Those in question are sent to one of two on-site X-ray labs for further identification. Some are dismantled by hand; others are exploded in a contained detonation chamber. At the moment, liquid content shells are safely stored.

Why did so many bombs land but not explode? As the war progressed, explains Gunst, the quality of the shells rapidly deteriorated. In some cases, soil contact was needed for detonation. Often, the soil was simply too wet. Instead of exploding on contact, the shells sunk into muck.

The task of finding the bombs that lie beneath the fields is immense. But what can farmers do? Persyn did look into having his fields professionally cleaned, but he says the cost is too high. Instead, he’s decided to do it himself.

Enter Dr. Marc Van Meirvenne, head of the department of soil management at the University of Ghent. At the exact time that Persyn was being treated in the hospital, Van Meirvenne was knocking on his door. The soil specialist has been mapping heavy metal concentrations (copper, zinc and iron) in West Flanders in an attempt to tie them to First World War munitions. Looking at original First World War aerial photos, he’s been able to determine which West Flemish fields were most heavily hit. Persyn’s farm was on that list.

Using electromagnetic and magnetic detection equipment, Van Meirvenne and his team create maps with GPS co-ordinates for the location of munitions. Today, Persyn is using those maps.

Van Meirvenne feels strongly about the burden unexploded munitions puts on farmers. “All of the risk and all costs remain on the landowner,” he says. “This is not correct because they did not put those shells into the soil, so why should they risk their lives or spend huge amounts of money to clean it?”

“Something must be done because to continue living in an area full of unexploded ammunition, I mean… It’s not a situation that improves,” he said.

For now, though, Persyn has little choice but to do it on his own. Last year, he rented a front-end loader and began work in a recently harvested field.

In the first 10 minutes of work, he discovered an unexploded 90-kilogram British bomb. It took four men to carry it out of the field. Later he discovered a bunker, and nearby, some 200 unexploded shells that had been simply buried at the end of the war. On average, he says he finds 30 shells – 10 unexploded, 20 empty – and 30 hand grenades each year. During potato harvest one year, he found 13 in one day.

It’s a risky task, but Persyn says he’s very careful. “You have to know that we are used to this here,” he says in dialect. “If you dig a hole, there’s a chance you’ll find a bomb. This is how we grew up. This is our soil.”

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Economizing was still the watchword — one article described how six handkerchiefs or a child’s dress could be made from a worn-out men’s shirt. An ad from B.C. Tree Fruits assured housewives that fruit could be canned without sugar, and every issue had updates on which ration book coupons were valid. Ads in each issue also encouraged readers to help “win the peace” by purchasing Victory Bonds.

The Nov. 1 issue reported on the founding meeting of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) in Quebec City. Manitoba Pool president and CFA vice-president W.J. Parker addressed the meeting, and called on the FAO to take action to prevent the disastrous price-depressing surpluses that had accumulated in exporting countries before the war.

Below a photo of the Canadian and international farm representatives at the meeting was a story reporting on the first large-scale release of military vehicles to Manitoba farmers. It said 382 farmers had applied to purchase the vehicles, which included 44, 15-cwt army trucks and 10 field artillery tractors.

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Anderson began the project on her own, gathering information over a 10-year period searching through cemetery records, on military headstones and local military cenotaphs, community honour rolls, local history books and newspaper items. Pictures and family history information were located in the collections of the North Norfolk-MacGregor Archives Inc. Other names and information came from Veterans Affairs Canada and Archives Canada.

In the last few months others joined in to assist her, realizing the value of what she had been working on. This fall she has spent much time working on lists of names, photographs and anecdotes to get the manuscript ready for publication. The resulting work covers: the Northwest (or Second Riel) Rebellion, the Second Boer War (1899-1902), First World War (1914-18), Second World War (1939-45), and the Korean War.

The book begins with the Northwest Rebellion when five local men are listed as being among the Canadian troops who fought there. Next is the Second Boer War, and Anderson’s records show that 15 men from the MacGregor/North Norfolk area were part of this war effort, with one casualty.

Most of Anderson’s lists and stories are from the two world wars where approximately 155 died in the First World War, and approximately 310 in the Second World War — a very large number from one small rural region. “It’s hard to realize the number of young men from this area who were killed and never returned here,” said an archives’ member. “It makes one wonder how different the local districts might have been, if all those young men had returned after the wars.”

The numbers of veterans listed who fought in the war but survived are also astonishing — over 300 in the First World War and almost 450 in the Second World War — all from one rural area.

To give the lists a more personal feeling, Anderson includes several letters written by soldiers to loved ones or friends at home. She also gives some local stories that really bring home the effect these wars had. Particularly moving is the story about the Stewart family of MacGregor. From this family, four sons volunteered during the First World War. Three died, and only one made it home. One of the letters was written by a son just 15 days before he was killed in action.

Local veterans who were honoured for bravery or actions during the wars are also part of the book, such as F.L. William (Bill) Roberts of MacGregor, shown receiving the Distinguished Flying Cross in 1945.

Anderson hopes the book will be completed and printed by Remembrance Day. She plans to print only about 15 copies, putting one in each of the local schools, the MacGregor United Church (where the local cenotaph is located), the Austin Agricultural Museum, the North Norfolk-MacGregor Library, the Seniors’ Centre in Austin, the Sidney Community Centre and the MacGregor Archives.

Remembering Our Veterans will be a fine tribute to those who sacrificed several years, and sometimes their lives, for the benefit of other Canadians. Anderson hopes that if any names have been missed, people will notify her, and they can be added to an extra page at the end of the book.

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