I took a look at the monthly data for the major centres across the Prairies in regards to temperatures and precipitation over the last three months. Below are the results. I have ranked or ordered the results in several different ways.

The first table below on the left is ranked by overall mean or average temperatures during May, June, and July. Looking at the table you can see that overall, Saskatchewan was the warmest, followed by Manitoba and then Alberta.

The second table on the right (see above) reorders our locations, based on how much each site’s average temperature differed or deviated from the long-term average temperature for that location. Looking at this table we see that Alberta is now the warmest region, with Saskatchewan coming in second and Manitoba last.

The third table below on the left looks at precipitation and I have ordered the data by the total amount of precipitation that fell at each location. Looking at the data you can see that the regions that saw the most rainfall were the more northern regions of the agricultural Prairies, with southern Alberta and southern and central Saskatchewan seeing the least precipitation.

Reordering the data on the right (see above) to show rankings comparing total precipitation to the long-term average for each location, or how much each station differed from their respective average, you can see that Regina has been remarkably dry compared to average, with a deficit of 137.5 mm of rain. Calgary also comes in very dry compared to the long-term average. The order then changes up a little bit with both Brandon and Winnipeg, which were higher on the list of total rainfall, now coming in as the next driest compared to average.

Hopefully this helps to shed a little bit of light on what has been going on weather-wise across the Prairies over the last few months. I also hope that looking at the data in a couple of different ways helps to put things into perspective. Regina, no matter how you look at it, has had a hot and dry last three months. Calgary, while dry, was not that warm overall, but compared to average it was the warmest region on the Prairies. So, when it comes to weather, pretty much everything is relative. What is warm in one place can be downright hot in another.

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“There are some concerns with pasture recovery and just starting up the season next year,” said Trevor Hadwen, agro-climate specialist with Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

“In terms of native pasture, the dry fall doesn’t allow the recharge of the soil moisture, which doesn’t allow the plants to prepare as well for the winter as they normally would.”

The biggest area of concern is a region starting in central Alberta and stretching into Saskatchewan, he said.

There are some dry regions in Manitoba as well, but many areas in the south and southwest received some good precipitation this fall.

“The southwest (region of Manitoba) has received quite a bit of rain, getting a few of those storms that were popping up from North Dakota,” Hadwen said.

Though the soil is too dry in Alberta now, it’s likely that things will improve in spring, said Drew Lerner of World Weather Inc. in Kansas.

“We’ve had some snow events already (in Alberta) which helped to pad the dryness a little bit and it kind of suggests that maybe we’ll see some improvement in the spring,” said Lerner. “A lot of the snow that fell will help to keep frost out of the ground, so when we do get into the spring thaw, the moisture will go into the ground fairly quickly.”

It’s still a wait-and-see kind of situation in Saskatchewan, though Lerner said he expects average snowfalls during the first half of winter across Western Canada, and that should keep winter wheat crops covered, he said.

“I think in general, the crop will probably be in fairly good shape,” he said. “There will be some very impressive bouts of cold that will occur, but I think we’ll have sufficient snow on the ground to take care of that. So, when it comes to the spring, we should at least get a fair start to the season.”

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Bids at Lethbridge have moved up to anywhere between $5.75 and nearly $5.95 per bushel delivered to the feedlots, almost $1 per bushel more than bids were last year at this time, said Kerby Redekop, grain merchant with Newco Grain at Lethbridge.

Meanwhile, prices in Manitoba have remained more consistent with the previous year, sitting around $5.22 per bushel. Saskatchewan bids vary between the highs seen in Alberta and lows seen in Manitoba, Redekop said.

Last month at this time, feed barley bids on the Prairies ranged between $3.18 and $5.46, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire data.

Less barley being grown over the past few years has tightened supplies considerably. Flooding in Saskatchewan last year especially reduced the production of the crop, Redekop said.

But an even more prevalent factor than the limited supply in Western Canada was the adverse growing conditions for feed crops in the U.S. Midwest, he said.

“Barley bids are going to stay high as long as they keep getting hot, dry weather in the U.S.,” he said. “As soon as you see some rain down there and you see the combines start rolling in Western Canada, you can expect prices to drop, but there are still going to be very strong bids for this time of year.”

With the combines two to three weeks away from harvesting barley in Western Canada, he added, Prairie livestock producers are “just hanging on,” as they try to turn a profit.

“Without a doubt, it’s having a major impact,” said Tyler Fulton, director of risk management with H@ms Marketing Services in Winnipeg.

Profitability in the hog sector has been taken down by about $10 per pig to the break-even mark, he said.

“Typically, seasonality on hog markets has producers relying on the fact that they’re making money at this time of year. Right now they’re not, simply because of the run-up in feed prices,” he said.

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A few regions dipped slightly below freezing for several hours overnight, including parts of southern Alberta, southern and central Saskatchewan and northern Manitoba, said Andrew Owen, a meteorologist at World Weather Inc., based in Kansas City, Kansas.

“I know there’s a few crops emerged, but I think they’re not very far along,” he said. “There might be a few canola crops that are pretty far ahead, but we still don’t think there was much damage.”

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The new support, to flow through the province’s Agriculture Development Fund (ADF), is meant to “accelerate” development of new varieties and help improve “yield, quality and tolerance to disease and extreme weather conditions.”

The province said its funding is for a crop that had become “less profitable for producers to grow” in recent years compared to canola or pulses.

Rising demand for food worldwide makes it “crucial that new investments be made in wheat research,” the province said.

“Early varieties like Marquis made farming worthwhile in all but the most inhospitable parts of the Prairies. It allowed the Prairies to become the breadbasket of the British Empire for the next 100 years,” Premier Brad Wall said in announcing the funds Feb. 2 in Saskatoon.

“It’s time to recapture that leadership, so Saskatchewan can help feed a hungry planet.”

The wheat research money will be used to partner with both public and private research organizations, the province said.

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Large pockets of the Prairie provinces have received less than 40 per cent of normal precipitation during the past three months, according to federal Agriculture Department maps.

“We have a lot of winter ahead of us and things can change in a hurry,” said Trevor Hadwen, agroclimate specialist for the Canadian government’s Drought Watch program. “(But) the fall period was very dry on the Prairies and that is a concern.”

Mild temperatures have been favourable for cattle, but dry conditions are a major concern to ranchers who rely on snow to replenish dugouts that will water their cattle in spring, said Travis Toews, president of the Canadian Cattlemen’s Association.

Environment Canada is forecasting colder and wetter conditions than usual for January through March, consistent with the usual impact of the La Nia weather phenomenon, Hadwen said.

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Large pockets of the Prairie provinces have received less than 40 per cent of normal precipitation during the past three months, according to federal Agriculture Department maps.

“We have a lot of winter ahead of us and things can change in a hurry,” said Trevor Hadwen, agroclimate specialist for the Canadian government’s Drought Watch program. “(But) the fall period was very dry on the Prairies and that is a concern.”

Mild temperatures have been favourable for cattle, but dry conditions are a major concern to ranchers who rely on snow to replenish dugouts that will water their cattle in spring, said Travis Toews, president of the Canadian Cattlemen’s Association.

Environment Canada is forecasting colder and wetter conditions than usual for January through March, consistent with the usual impact of the La Nia weather phenomenon, Hadwen said.

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Believe it or not, but last week s forecast came out pretty close to what the weather models had predicted. The one main difference was the strength and size of the low that moved up from the south and ended up parking itself over Hudson Bay last weekend. This low, at its peak last Sunday, stretched from just south of the Canadian border all the way up to the top of Hudson Bay. With our region being on the back side of the low we ended up with strong northwesterly winds, which brought slightly colder temperatures than expected.

This low will finally move off by the middle of this week, which will then allow for a ridge of high pressure to build in from the south. At the same time, an area of low pressure will be tracking across the northern Prairies. While the ridge will keep southern and central regions dry during the second half of this week, the low will keep the ridge from building too far north, keeping the really mild air well to our south. We should still see a fair bit of sunshine, along with high temperatures in the low teens and overnight lows around the freezing mark.

Late next weekend and into the early part of next week, a weak area of low pressure is forecasted to move through, bringing clouds and a few showers. The models then lean toward a ridge of high pressure trying to build northward once again. This general pattern currently looks like it will last right through to the end of the month, so we should expect fairly dry conditions to continue, along with temperatures near or slightly above average.

Usual temperature range for this period:

Highs: 4 to 15 C. Lows: -6 to 4 C.

Probability of precipitation falling as snow: 40 per cent.

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WEATHER MAP -WESTERN CANADA

Copyright 2011 Agriculture &Agri-Food Canada

3 Month (90 Days) Percent of Average Precipitation (Prairie Region)

July 16, 2011 to October 13, 2011

Prepared by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada s National Agroclimate Information Service (NAIS). Data provided through partnership with Environment Canada, Natural Resources Canada, and many Provincial agencies.

< 40%

40 -60% 60 -85% 85 -115% 115 -150% 150 -200%

200% Extent of Agricultural Land Lakes and Rivers

Produced using near real-time data that has undergone initial quality control. The map may not be accurate for all regions due to data availability and data errors.

Created: 10/14/11

www.agr.gc.ca/drought

This issue s map shows the amount of precipitation that has fallen across the Prairies over the last 90 days, which comes close to covering the summer months and this fall. From the map you can see that much of agricultural Manitoba and northwestern agricultural Alberta saw fairly dry conditions during this period, both reporting at least less than 85 per cent of average precipitation. A good portion of these areas were even drier, with less than 60 per cent. A few areas were extremely dry (red) with less than 40 per cent of average amounts of precipitation recorded. Saskatchewan, northwestern Manitoba and a small area of southern Alberta were the only wet spots, with several areas reporting between 115 and 150 per cent of average.

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Contacthimwithyourquestionsandcommentsat daniel@bezte.ca.

———

Copyright 2011 Agriculture &Agri-Food Canada

Precipitation Compared to Historical Distribution (Prairie Region)

April 1, 2011 to August 18, 2011

Prepared by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s National Agroclimate Information Service (NAIS). Data provided through partnership with Environment Canada, Natural Resources Canada, and many Provincial agencies.

Record Dry

Extremely Low (0-10) Very Low (10-20) Low (20-40)

Mid-Range (40-60) High (60-80)

Very High (80-90)

Extremely High (90-100) Record Wet

Extent of Agricultural Land Lakes and Rivers

Produced using near real-time data that has undergone initial quality control. The map may not be accurate for all regions due to data availability and data errors.

Created: 08/19/11

www.agr.gc.ca/drought

This issue’s map shows the amount of precipitation that has fallen across the Prairies over the 60-day period

ending Aug. 18 compared to what we would historically expect. Areas that are dark green and blue have seen

much more rain than what would historically be expected, while those areas in yellow and browns have seen

much less. A good portion of the Prairies has seen historically wet conditions over the last 60 days, with only

small pockets seeing historically dry conditions.

The post Weekly weather map – for Aug. 25, 2011 appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.

Contacthimwithyourquestionsandcommentsat daniel@bezte.ca.

This issue’s map shows the total amount of precipitation that has fallen across the Prairies so far this growing

season. From the map you can see that western Manitoba, eastern Saskatchewan, along with western Alberta

have seen very wet conditions with most areas seeing in excess of 300 mm of rain. In Manitoba, drier conditions

have been experienced in eastern regions along with the far northwest.

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