Then August came and went, and when all was said and done, that month came in with near- to slightly above-average temperatures.

So, what did September bring? Well, unless you never went outside, you probably know that is was a warmer than average month. The question is, ‘Just how warm was it?’

Temperature

As usual, we will look at the average temperature rankings for the main reporting centers in each province, followed by a look at how those actual temperatures compare to average. We will follow that up with a look at precipitation rankings and how they compare to average. Then we will jump into the long-range outlooks and see if there have been any changes to the thinking of the weather models.

TABLES: Prairie precipitation and temperature, September 2025

Looking at the mean monthly temperatures for the month of September, the warmest actual location was once again Winnipeg, coming in at 16.1 Celsius. This was followed closely by Regina at 15.9 C and then Calgary at 15.6 C.

Comparing the mean monthly temperature to average, the warmest locations were Calgary, coming in 4.6 C above average, with Regina coming in second with 4.1 C warmer than average, and Edmonton a close third at 4.0 C warmer than average.

The cold spot was Peace River, with a reading of 13.4 C, which is not unexpected at this time of the year due to this region more northerly location. The coldest region compared to average was Brandon, coming in at a measly 3.2 C above average – which in all seriousness is still pretty darn warm.

This September was very reminiscent of last September when temperatures averaged from 2.6 to 5.6 C warmer than average.

Looking back at the last 15 years of data, I found that 10 of those years saw warmer-than-average Septembers and three were near-average, which means only two reported below-average temperatures. It is looking more and more likely that this may be our new normal, heading into fall.

Precipitation

Looking at precipitation, it was extremely dry across the western half of the Prairies, with most of Alberta seeing little to no precipitation during September. Precipitation was near-to-above average across southern Manitoba and parts of southern and eastern Saskatchewan, while central regions of Saskatchewan saw below-average amounts.

Turning to temperature, overall it was a much warmer-than-average September, with western regions seeing well below-average precipitation, and eastern regions seeing near- to above-average amounts.

Looking back at the forecasts, the winner would have to be the CFS model with its forecast of well-above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation.

Forecasts

Now on to our look at the latest medium-to-long range forecasts. As usual we will start off with the almanacs. The Old Farmer’s Almanac is calling for near- to slightly above-average temperatures and precipitation during the last couple of months of fall and into the first month of winter.

The Canadian Farmers’ Almanac appears to call for below-average temperatures in October and November along with above-average precipitation. It then looks like to transition to near-average temperatures and precipitation in December.

Moving on now to the different weather models. Last month’s winner, the CFS model, is calling for above-average temperatures in October and November with near-average temperatures across the eastern Prairies in December and western regions seeing below-average temperatures. Precipitation will be below-average in October with near-average in November and December.

The CanSIPS model calls for well-above-average temperatures in October which then transitions to near-average in October and below-average in December. Their precipitation forecast is calling for near- to below-average across all three months

Looking at NOAA’s prediction — and, as usual, extrapolating northward, as its model just disappears at the Canadian border — it appears to call for the next three months to see near-average temperatures and precipitation, except for southern Alberta seeing above-average precipitation.

Last is the ECMWF or European model. It calls for above-average temperatures in October and November, transitioning to near-average in December. Their precipitation forecast is calling for below-average amounts in October, transitioning to above-average by December.

Now on to my two cents. There are no strong forcing mechanisms in place that look to push us into a colder-than-average pattern. So, I am going with a warmer-than-average October and first half of November with temperatures then cooling to near- or even slightly below-average by early December. Precipitation, always difficult to predict, will be near-average in October, transitioning to near- to above-average by mid-November and into December with the western Pairies seeing a good chance of below-average precipitation throughout this period.

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Manitoba Infrastructure and Transportation’s Hydrologic Forecast Centre released its outlook Feb. 28. The report also advised of a moderate flood risk in the Interlake region along the Fisher and Icelandic rivers.

The risk of spring flooding is generally low along the Souris, Roseau, Rat and Pembina rivers.

However, the predictions are based on average precipitation in coming weeks.

The report notes these predictions are preliminary and that spring flood risk is largely dependent on weather conditions from now until the spring melt.

Though not very reliable, long-range forecasts point to near-normal precipitation throughout the province.

Ice cutting and breaking is underway on the Red River north of Winnipeg and expected to be completed by March 14. Ice-cutting and breaking work on the Icelandic River is scheduled to start March 17.

Similar work is not being undertaken this spring on the Assiniboine River, along the Portage Diversion, due to a lower risk of ice jam-related flooding.

Winter precipitation has been generally below normal in most central and southern Manitoba basins, with the exception of southeastern Manitoba, which has received near-normal precipitation.

Winter precipitation has been normal to above normal throughout northern Manitoba basins, including the Saskatchewan and Churchill River basins. The United States portions of the Red River and Souris River basins have also received normal to above-normal precipitation since Nov. 1.

Base flows and levels (the amount of water available in the system prior to spring runoff) have been gradually declining in most rivers since the fall and are generally near normal to above normal in most Manitoba basins. Higher base flows indicate higher soil saturation levels and higher spring runoff potential.

The frost depth is variable across the watersheds but is generally considered normal to shallower than normal throughout most of the province due to warmer than normal winter temperatures. Soil frost depth affects the amount of surface water that infiltrates the soil. Deeper soil frost contributes to higher surface runoff.

The centre also reports that operation of the Red River Floodway is expected this spring under unfavourable future weather conditions to reduce water levels within the city of Winnipeg, with some operation of the Portage Diversion also anticipated to prevent ice jamming on the Assiniboine River.

The full report can be found on the Manitoba government website.

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After spending a couple of weeks there, I returned home and did some quick gardening before heading west to Canmore, Alta. for a wedding. What a nice place. The only downside was that we happened to be there during a heatwave, with daytime highs pushing the low 30s each day, though it was a dry heat.

Did I mention it was a really nice place, but with no air conditioning? Apparently, they do not need it as a run of several days of heat in a row does not happen often.

After coming home and doing some more catch-up gardening, my finale for the summer has taken me to Riding Mountain National Park in Manitoba, to — you guessed it — compete in my final triathlon of the year.

What does this have to do with the weather? Besides testing my ability to forecast the weather from new areas, I get to hear local weather folklore. I always find it interesting to hear different weather sayings or words of weather wisdom as I travel. Here are some of the ones I hear most often.

Red skies

One of the most well-known sayings goes something like “red sky at night, sailor’s delight, red sky in morning, sailors take warning.” This saying works well and makes sense if you live in the Northern Hemisphere, north of the tropics. In this region, the prevailing winds in the upper atmosphere are from the west, which generally drive weather systems from west to east.

To get a red sunrise or sunset you need a large number of particles in the air for the sunlight to bounce off, causing us to see more of the red light. These particles can either be dust from different sources or water droplets. At night or at sunset, for us to see the sun and a red sky, the sky along the horizon must be clear or clearing and there must be moisture in the air between us and the horizon.

Since the sun sets in the west and weather systems tend to move from west to east, the clearing place near the horizon should move in our direction, hopefully leading to a nice sunny day tomorrow and thus the delight.

The opposite is true for a red sky in the morning. To see a red sky it means that again, the horizon is clear, but moisture is between us and the horizon. Since the sun rises in the east and weather systems generally move from west to east, that moisture must be moving into our region, thus the need to take warning.

Halo there

Another popular bit of weather lore around the Prairies is, “if there is a halo around the moon then rain will come soon.” While this might not always be true, there is sound weather logic behind it.

For a halo to appear around the moon, there must be high cirrus clouds, which are made up of ice crystals. These high clouds of ice crystals can refract moonlight, allowing us to see a halo of light around the moon. Often when an area of low pressure or storm system is approaching, it is preceded by these high cirrus clouds, so the saying makes sense.

I know there are several other weather sayings and I would love to examine them all. Some of these sayings or lore apply to our part of the world and some don’t. In fact, I am sure there are sayings and lore out there that are fairly local to any area of the Prairies.

If you have a favourite weather saying or lore that you would like me to explore or share, feel free to email me. Just place the words weather saying or weather lore in the subject line.

The fog of lore

Along with weather sayings that make good weather sense, there’s one that, to me, makes no sense at all yet it has been shared with me several times in the past by different farmers across the Prairies. It states: “Like snow? Count the number of August fogs.”

At first glance I thought it said “frogs” and I immediately went, what the heck? But then I remembered the emails I had received over the years about this and how certain the emailers had been about the truth of this saying.

When you look at most of the weather lore out there, it usually covers short-term weather. This one is one of those long-term predictions, and I find that the longer the time period between observation and result, the more our minds tend to make things work out the way we want them to.

When I began to think about this one I’ll admit I shrugged it off as a big pile of you-know-what. For example, valley regions tend to get a lot more fog than hilltops, so I guess these valley regions will be getting a heck of a lot more snow than the hilltops. That doesn’t make sense. To me there are just too many geographical and local influences that impact fog formation for this to hold any real weather truth.

If we were only to look at August fog events that impact a large area, we might be able to make some kind of link between August fog and winter snow. Certain weather patterns can lead to more fog formation and these general patterns could either continue into the fall and winter or lead to a different weather pattern that may or may not be a snowy pattern in winter. I just can’t see how this one could work out or how you could accurately track it.

Again, if you have some insight into this or other weather sayings or lore, or just have a weather topic you would like me to discuss, please let me know. Until next time, here’s hoping the weather in your area is just what you need.

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Hundreds of millions of the voracious insects have swept across Ethiopia, Somalia and Kenya in what the U.N. has called the worst outbreak in a quarter of a century, with Uganda, Eritrea and Djibouti also affected.

Authorities in those countries are already carrying out aerial spraying of pesticides, but experts say the scale of the infestation is beyond local capacity as desert locusts can travel up to 150 km in a day.

They threaten to increase food shortages in a region where up to 25 million people are reeling from three consecutive years of droughts and floods, say aid agencies.

Keith Cressman, senior locust forecasting officer at the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), said specially developed prototypes would be tested that can detect swarms via special sensors and adapt their speed and height accordingly.

“Nobody’s ever done this with desert locusts before. So we have no proven methodology for using drones for spraying on locusts,” said Cressman.

“There are already small atomizer sprayers made for drones. But with locusts, we just don’t know how high and how fast to fly.”

The swarms — one reportedly measuring 40 km by 60 km — have already devoured tens of thousands of hectares of crops, such as maize, sorghum and teff, and ravaged pasture for livestock.

By June, the fast-breeding locusts could grow by 500 times and move into South Sudan.

The impact on the region’s food supply could be enormous — a locust swarm of a square kilometre is able to eat the same amount of food in one day as 35,000 people, says the FAO.

Can drones work?

Climate scientists say global warming may be behind the current infestations, which have also hit parts of Iran, India and Pakistan.

Warmer seas have resulted in a rise in the frequency of cyclones in the Indian Ocean. This caused heavy downpours along the Arabian peninsula, creating ideal conditions for locust breeding in the deserts of Oman, Yemen and Saudi Arabia.

Researchers are increasingly looking to technology to help provide early warning signs and control locust outbreaks amid fears climate change could bring more cyclones.

Officials in Kenya say drones could play an important role given the limited number of aircraft.

“Every county wants an aircraft, but we have only have five at the moment and they can only be in one location at one time,” said David Mwangi, head of plant protection at Kenya’s ministry of agriculture.

“We have not used drones before, but I think it’s worth testing them as they could help.”

Existing drone models are restricted in terms of the volumes they can carry and the distances they can cover due to their size and limited battery life, say entomologists and plant protection researchers.

Another challenge for drone use in such emergencies is the lack of regulation. Many east African countries are still in the early stages of drafting laws, prohibiting usage unless in exceptional circumstances and with strict approvals.

That makes it harder to deploy larger drones, which have petrol-powered engines capable of carrying tanks of up to 1,500 litres and travelling distances of up to 500 km, and often require special approval.

Drones can also be used in the aftermath of an infestation.

“The other use case for drones is in post-disaster mapping,” said Kush Gadhia from Astral Aerial Solutions, a Kenyan firm that seeks to use drones to address development challenges.

“Governments need to know the extent of the damage afterwards. Combining larger satellite maps with smaller drone maps — which provide higher resolution images — will give more accurate assessments on the extent crop loss and health.”

— Reporting by Nita Bhalla for the Thomson Reuters Foundation, the charitable arm of Thomson Reuters, that covers humanitarian news, women’s and LGBT+ rights, human trafficking, property rights and climate change.

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Adding up all the numbers for the major reporting centres across all three Prairie provinces, it turned out that no locations reported below-average temperatures. Alberta was the coolest, both in terms of absolute temperatures and the difference from average. Both the Edmonton and Peace River regions reported mean monthly temperatures around 14.5 C, about 0.5 C above average. The Calgary region also had a mean monthly temperature of about 14.5 C, which is about 0.8 C above average.

Moving on to Saskatchewan, mean monthly temperatures at both Regina and Saskatoon were around 17 C. This was about 1 C above the long-term average for Regina and 1.7 C for Saskatoon. The big-time heat was found here in Manitoba. The warm spot was the Winnipeg region, with a mean monthly June temperature of 19.6 C or about 2.5 C above average. The Brandon region recorded a mean monthly temperature of 18.6 C, about 2.7 C above average. The hot spot, with the greatest temperature difference relative to average goes to Dauphin, with a mean monthly temperature of 18.8 C, which is 3.1 C above average.

So, just how warm has it been across Manitoba over the last month or two? Well, the mean monthly temperatures for June were actually equal to what we would normally see in July. We must go back to July 2015 to find a warmer month than what we saw this June. Looking at the number of 30-plus C days so far this year, most places in southern Manitoba have already seen more this year than the last two years combined. So yes, it has been hot.

This hot late spring and early summer could have been devastating if we didn’t see any rain. Looking back at the precipitation data for June it turns out that, for most regions, rainfall was near to even slightly above average for June. Starting once again in Alberta, we find that both the Edmonton and Peace River regions recorded about 75 mm of rain, a few millimetres above average. Calgary was a little drier, with about 60 mm. Moving eastward, Regina and Saskatoon were both dry. Regina saw about 45 mm of rain, with Saskatoon only seeing about 20 mm. Here in Manitoba, thunderstorms brought near- to slightly above-average amounts of rainfall to both the Brandon and Dauphin regions. The Winnipeg region, while seeing some timely rains, came in about 20 mm below average, with a total of 70 mm of rain.

The look ahead

Now, on to the long-range forecasts. Will we see a continuation of the heat, or will we have to pay some of it back with cool weather? Starting off with the almanacs, the Old Farmer’s Almanac calls for near-average temperatures this summer with above-average amounts of precipitation in August, and near-average amounts in July. The Canadian Farmers’ Almanac seems to call for a hot July and August, with near-average rainfall. Moving on to Environment Canada, its latest three-month forecast is calling for above-average temperatures, with below-average amounts of precipitation.

The next weather models are American, the first being the CFS model, which is run by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Their models have been fairly consistent, showing well-above-average temperatures continuing for all of July, with a bit of a cool-down toward more average values in August, especially across the eastern Prairies. Their precipitation forecast, which has not been as accurate as their temperature forecasts, calls for above-average amounts of precipitation for both July and August. Next in line is NOAA’s seasonal forecast. It continues to play it safe with a call for near-average temperatures and precipitation, with parts of western Alberta seeing a slightly warmer- and drier-than-average summer.

Finally, my two cents. I am continuing to lean toward a warmer-than-average summer, especially in July. As for precipitation, my gut is leaning toward near- to slightly above-average amounts, as the heat and humidity bring continued rounds of thunderstorms across our region. Now, as usual, it is time to see just what Mother Nature decides to throw at us.

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For most of this forecast period, the general flow will be out of the northwest. Within the flow there will be several areas of low pressure bringing a mixed bag of weather to our region. The first weak low will slide by to our south on Wednesday. Western and southern regions may see some clouds, but it looks like any snowfall will stay to our south. A small, quick-moving arctic high will push through Thursday bringing sunny skies and the coldest temperatures of this forecast period. Expect overnight lows on Friday morning to drop to near -25 C.

On Friday and Saturday, an area of low pressure is forecast to track through north-central Manitoba. Any precipitation from this low should be confined to far northern agricultural regions, with central and southern regions seeing a mix of sun and clouds with maybe the odd flurry. Temperatures look to warm up, as winds turn southerly ahead of this low. Expect daytime highs to be in the -2 to -5 C range.

Our attention then turns to an area of low pressure forecast to develop and move across our region on Monday. The weather models do not have a good handle on this system, so confidence is low in this part of the forecast. There is a chance of seeing measurable snow with this system, with current amounts forecast to be in the five- to 10-cm range. This looks to be a fast-moving system, so I don’t expect large amounts of snow, but any March storm system bears watching.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -13 to -1 C; lows: -26 to -10 C.

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After a cool start to this week and another strong area of low pressure just clipping our region to the south, it looks like things will settle down for a few days. Overall, though, our weather pattern looks to stay fairly active, as the main storm track appears to be taking shape across the northern U.S.

Cool high pressure will build into our region on Wednesday, bringing sunny skies and high temperatures in the low to mid-teens. Thursday and Friday’s forecasts are a little tough as another low is forecast to track near or just south of Manitoba during this time. It’s hard to say if the high to our north and east will win out, or if we’ll see clouds and showers move in. Either way, temperatures shouldn’t be too bad, with highs in the mid-teens if it is cloudy, or upper teens to low 20s if we see more sunshine.

The long weekend’s forecast is also a tough one, as it looks like the battle between cool high pressure to our north and an active storm track to our south will continue. Currently, it looks like Saturday will be a nice day, with partly cloudy skies and highs in the upper teens to low 20s. The weather models are having a tough time with another low-pressure system forecast to develop over the weekend, so confidence in this part of the forecast is low. It looks likely that we’ll see some showers move in on Sunday, with fairly cool air moving in on Monday and Tuesday and highs only expected to be in the low teens.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 13 to 25 C; lows, 0 to 9 C.

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This week’s forecast is pretty simple and the agreement among the weather models is fairly high, which means there is reasonably high confidence in this forecast.

We should begin this forecast period with the western ridge of high pressure building over our region and bringing with it plenty of sunshine, along with very warm temperatures. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see highs in the mid-20s at least once by the weekend.

An area of low pressure is forecast to slide through northern Manitoba over the weekend. This low will drag a cold front southward sometime late on Sunday or Monday morning. The front will trigger a few showers or thundershowers as it passes through, but this looks to be the only chance for rain during this period.

It doesn’t look like there’ll be much, if any, cold air to work in behind this system, which means temperatures won’t fall much. Combine this with a developing low pressure to our west, and the first half of next week should be high and dry, with temperatures running near the top end of the usual range for this time of the year. Looking beyond this period, the weather models point toward continued mild weather, with most of the precipitation tracking to our south.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 8 to 22 C; lows, -3 to +7 C.

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This forecast period is going to be dominated by a large arctic high that is forecast to slowly drop southward. This high will begin to nudge into our area Thursday, with the centre of the high crossing over us Saturday and Sunday. We’ll see plenty of sunshine with this high, and for those areas that are snow free, this will allow daytime temperatures to warm up to about 5 C more than snow-covered areas. But even the snow-free areas will be cool, especially over the weekend when the high is directly overhead. We should expect to see highs drop to below freezing on Thursday and by the weekend, highs will struggle to make it to around -4 C, with snow-covered regions in the -8 C range. Overnight lows will also be cold, with temperatures dropping to around -16 C on the weekend.

Once this high slides by to the southeast early next week, we’ll see temperatures moderate as the flow becomes southwesterly. Temperatures will start to warm up late on Sunday, and by Monday, daytime highs should be back above 0 C. We’ll have to keep an eye out for a possible system that could bring a mix of rain and snow on Wednesday, but that’s a long way off, and so far this year we’ve either been missing these systems or they don’t develop as forecast.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -8 to +6 C; lows, -21 to -4 C. Probability of precipitation falling as snow: 90 per cent.

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As we head into March it looks like arctic high pressure will continue to dominate our weather, with the models predicting another three areas of high pressure to drop southeast during this forecast period. The couple of positives we have in our favour are that the sunshine is getting stronger as we move into March, which will help to moderate or warm up the highs, and secondly, these highs will not come across the pole. This means they won’t be as cold from the start.

The first high will be the coldest and will cross our region on Wednesday and should be to our southeast by Thursday and Friday. Wednesday should be the coldest day of this forecast period and we should see high temperatures moderate towards the -10 C range by Friday. Late in the weekend, a second high will slide in from the northwest, dropping temperatures back down by about 5 to 8 C. Once again we’ll see a brief warm-up as the high slides to our southeast Monday or Tuesday before the third arctic high pushes in around the middle of next week. This high looks as if it will take a more westerly route, sparing us from the coldest air. High temperatures with this high will likely be in the middle of the usual temperature range for this time of the year, with overnight lows slightly colder.

Looking further ahead, the models still aren’t showing any big push of warm air, but with most regions having only light to moderate snow cover it won’t take much to melt most of it off.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -13 to 0 C; lows, -27 to -9 C.

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