There had been strong expectations in the trade for canola to slip below the psychological level of C$600/tonne before the week was out, but that didn’t happen. However, some trade participants remain convinced that drop is still going to happen very soon.

And why not? Right now, there’s a great deal stacked against the Canadian oilseed.

Foremost is China’s disappearance from the export market. Just as China remains committed not to buy U.S. soybeans anytime soon, it is just as resolute to avoid purchasing canola from Canada. With buyers for China faced with import tariffs of nearly 76 per cent on Canadian canola seed and 100 per cent duties on the oil and meal, why would China acquire canola from what has long been its number one source?

Until Ottawa and Beijing smooth out their dispute over Canada’s 100 per cent surcharge on imports of electric vehicles from China, it’s likely very little will be resolved on the canola front. And if something does happen, look for it after the New Year.

The numbers from the Canadian Grain Commission bear out the canola doldrums, showing 2025/26 year-to-date canola exports of canola at about 796,000 tonnes – nearly 1.16 million tonnes short of where they were this time last year.

Even an earlier one million-tonne lead for this year’s domestic use has virtually dissipated. At about 2.08 million tonnes, it’s now roughly 144,000 tonnes up on the same point in 2024/25.

Then there’s the Prairie canola harvest that’s soon to wrap up. Numerous anecdotal reports of better-than-expected yields has many in the trade thinking production will very likely exceed the 20.03 million tonnes Statistics Canada estimated last month. There are thoughts of a canola harvest of around or even above 21 million tonnes. StatCan’s next production report is set for early December.

One positive aspect to canola has been Chicago soyoil, which has climbed a half cent at 50.95 cents per pound. The spillover from that gain was largely responsible for propping up canola.

Some in the trade said that as long as soyoil remains above 50 cents/lb., canola very likely won’t push below C$600/tonne.

But in the long run, even that might not be able to sustain canola. There will be maneuvers to bump up the oilseed temporarily, there’s just not enough fundamentals within canola to safeguard it from sliding below C$600.

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As grim prospects have become the Canadian oilseed’s central theme, some market participants suggested the front month is likely to retreat to $580/tonne.

Increasing harvest pressure will pull down canola prices. The pace on the Prairies picked up over the week, with Manitoba’s canola 10 per cent in the bin and Saskatchewan at four per cent harvested. The latest Alberta crop report hadn’t been published, but it’s safe to assume more canola came off of its fields.

A much bigger than forecast canola harvest is coming as well. Statistics Canada projected it to be 19.94 million tonnes, with an update set for Sept. 17.

Then of course there’s China. When China doesn’t buy, vegetable oil prices fall and that’s exactly what has happened in North America.

China has its 75.8 per cent tariff on Canadian canola seed and already imposed 100 per cent levies on the oil and meal some time ago.

Besides China often taking years to finally come around on trade issues, this mess with canola is more complicated within Canada. The agriculture industry just doesn’t match up with the country’s auto sector.

Rather, Ottawa seems to think it best to hang on to its 100 per cent surcharges on electric vehicle imports from China in order to prop up the auto industry that lags behind in EV development.

However, there might be some hope as China extended its canola dumping investigation to March 2026. The additional six months may allow for more negotiations between Ottawa and Beijing. The announcement came just as a Canadian trade delegation is headed to China.

Inevitably, there will be change as China doesn’t grow enough of its own canola. There isn’t much to be had from other countries, with Canada and Australia the two top exporters.

But it’s the anguish Canadian canola growers will likely have to endure until something is finally done about the tariffs

Until then, a very large United States soybean harvest is around the corner and there’s that massive bean harvest in Brazil.

The trade kerfuffle the Trump administration created with China has meant the latter isn’t buying much from the U.S. The Sept. 5 Department of Agriculture export sales report showed a near absence of Chinese buying.

If there’s a lesson to be drawn here, it’s that tariffs cause more problems than solutions.

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The largest advances were with fall rye and winter wheat at 87 per cent finished each.  The combining of field peas was pegged at 59 per cent done, followed by barley at 22 per cent, spring wheat at 13 per cent, oats at six per cent and canola at three per cent.

By region, the central was furthest along at 16 per cent finished, with the southwest at six per cent, the Interlake at four per cent, and the east and northwest at three per cent.

As for yields, Manitoba Agriculture said fall rye and winter wheat were coming in at 40 to 110 bushels per acre. Spring wheat was pulling in 25 to 90 bu./ac., oats 80 to 180, barley 90 to 115, and peas at 30 to 65. Also, the planting of winter crops was underway in some of the regions.

The province’s corn were in the silking to milk stage, with the earliest planted corn in the dough stage.

Most of Manitoba’s canola was either receiving pre-harvest applications or being swathed, while the late-seeded canola was flowering to pod-fill. There continued to be issues with flea beetles and lygus. Sunflowers have completed flowered and in the R7 stage. The flax was in the brown capsule stage with the earliest planted in the seed ripe stage.

Soybeans were in the R5 to R6 stages.

The department said recent warm weather and rain have improved forage growth in the province. Dairy producers have made their second cut of alfalfa with good yields, along with some reports of a third cut in the central region. The beef producers completed their first hay harvest, and the second cut of tame hay was either finished or ongoing.

The most rain in the province fell in the southwest and northwest regions, with Minitonas getting nearly 78 millimeters while Birtle had about 68.

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Yields for the fall rye were reported to be 90 to 120 bushels per acre and 40 to 110 bu./ac. for the winter wheat.
In addition, five per cent of the barley and almost one per cent of the spring wheat and field peas were taken off the fields. The ag department said most of the spring cereals ranged from hard dough to physiological maturity, with late-planted crops at the soft dough stage.

As for the quality of the spring wheat, Manitoba Agriculture said the Interlake and the central region reported it to be 85 per cent good to excellent. The northwest came in at 80 per cent good to excellent, with the eastern region at 70 per cent and the southwest at 65 per cent.

Manitoba’s canola was said to be in the pod fill to early ripening stage, while some of the oilseed has been swathed. The later-planted canola was nearing the end of blooming to beginning to fill pods. Among the other oilseeds, the flax was reported to be in growth stages 10 to 11, while the sunflowers ranged from the R4 stage to completing flowering.

The report said soybeans were in the R3 to R5 stages with the majority in R4.

The first cut of tame forages was said to be complete and work on native stands was continuing. The second cut of alfalfa was finished as well with good yields reported. High levels of humidity and morning dew has impeded the on the quality of the forages. Despite that, cereal silage yields were above average.

Hot, dry conditions were slowing pastures due to limited moisture reserves. Dugouts were at 80 per cent capacity and water supplies on pastures was adequate.

Rainfall in the province saw Moosehorn and Rorketon receive the most at 42 to 45 millimeters, while several locations had none.

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Statistics Canada’s crop estimates tend to increase in the annual December report, but the agency’s raised estimate for all-wheat production surpassed industry expectations.

Global wheat ending stocks have fallen four years in a row, with Canada’s drought and heavy rain in Australia tightening this year’s supplies, offset somewhat by a big Russian harvest.

Canada is the world’s fourth-largest wheat exporter and the biggest canola exporter.

Statistics Canada estimated all-wheat production at 32 million metric tons, the second-lowest in six years, but an increase from its September estimate of 29.8 million. The new estimate exceeded the average industry expectation of 31.1 million tons in a Reuters poll.

“It’s a pretty big jump from the fall report. Yields came off quite a bit better than expected,” said Brian Voth, president of farmer advisory IntelliFarm. Timely late-summer rains may have revived some crops, he said.

Farmers harvested 24.8 million tons of spring wheat, the wheat milled for baking flour, up from StatsCan’s previous estimate of 22.6 million and the average trade estimate of 24 million.

Growers produced 4 million tons of durum, the hard wheat used to make pasta, the second-smallest harvest in 13 years amid tight global supplies and a slight reduction from StatsCan’s previous estimate.

The StatsCan report is based on a farmer survey.

Farmers produced 18.3 million tons of canola, up from 17.4 million in the previous report but down 2% from last year. StatsCan’s estimate matched the average trade guess.

ICE Canada January canola futures eased slightly, little changed from before the report.

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Chicago-based Conagra Brands said Tuesday it will sell its Wesson oil brand and related assets — including a 280,000-square foot U.S. processing plant at Memphis — to Richardson for an undisclosed sum.

Wesson-branded retail cooking oils, available in the U.S. for over 100 years, today include canola oil, corn oil, soy oil and “Best Blend,” a blended canola/soybean oil. Conagra has owned the brand since 1990, when it took over the Beatrice Co. product portfolio.

Richardson is already a known entity in Canadian and U.S. canola oil retail markets, where it sells the Canola Harvest oil and Crystal and Mirage margarine brands.

The Winnipeg company’s canola processing operations already include crush plants at Lethbridge, Alta. and Yorkton, Sask. and packaging plants at Lethbridge and at Oakville, Ont.

Conagra, whose brand stable includes Pam, Fleischmann’s, Duncan Hines, Reddi-wip, Slim Jim, Aunt Jemima, Chef Boyardee, Jiffy Pop and Orville Redenbacher’s among others, has sought to shed some of its business lines in recent years and become a “singularly focused, consumer branded food company.”

To that end, Conagra in 2016 spun off its Lamb Weston potato processing business and last year set up a deal to sell the Wesson brand to Ohio-based jam maker J.M. Smucker Co. for about US$285 million (C$384.6 million).

But the U.S. Federal Trade Commission challenged the Smucker deal in March this year, saying Smucker, owner of the Crisco brand, would have controlled at least 70 per cent of the market for branded canola and vegetable oils if it took over Wesson.

Asked via email Tuesday how the value of its acquisition compares to the aborted Smucker deal, a representative for privately-held Richardson reiterated the company won’t comment regarding the purchase price.

Conagra said its deal with Richardson, subject to the usual closing conditions and any required regulatory approvals, is expected to close by the end of the first calendar quarter of 2019.

Of the Wesson plant at Memphis, Richardson CEO Curt Vossen said in a release that the company is “excited about expanding into this geography and look(s) forward to investing in the future of this plant, the employees and the community.”

Richardson described the Wesson brand as “a preferred choice in American homes for cooking and baking applications for more than a century,” noting its marketing campaigns “firmly established the brand as a common household name for the health-conscious and discerning consumer.”

That said, Richardson added it plans to “reinvigorate the brand to engage customers.”

“The rich history of both our company and the Wesson brand makes this an exciting acquisition for us,” Vossen said. “We believe that consumers will continue to seek out high-quality foods and aligning with the Wesson brand expands our ability to meet that consumer desire.” — Glacier FarmMedia Network

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Seasonal price trends, however, should see values continue their uptrend over the next month.

The most-active November contract has now traded above the $500 per tonne level for five straight sessions, but failed to settle above that resistance level each time.

While that psychological mark is holding for now, the price could easily climb another $15 per tonne higher, according to Mike Jubinville of ProFarmer Canada in Winnipeg.

With the Canadian canola harvest nearly complete and the U.S. soybean harvest about half done, he said the market was entering the stage where farmer deliveries into the commercial pipeline slow down.

Oilseed markets typically move higher heading into the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday (Nov. 23), he added.

While the commercial pipeline is well stocked for now, demand is also solid from both domestic crushers and exporters, according to Jubinville. End-user buying interest may first show itself in improving basis levels, he said, before showing up in the futures.

If speculators jump in, canola can go even higher, he said, adding that $530 per tonne would be “the gold-standard top.”

Beyond the seasonal uptrend, Jubinville said South American weather conditions, Chinese demand and the possibility of a La Nina developing were all additional factors the market would be watching.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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“That (USDA supply and demand report) is going to be the driver,” said Keith Ferley of RBC Dominion Securities in Winnipeg.

There are ideas tomorrow’s report could feature yield estimates for the U.S. soybean crop that are higher than previously forecast.

The canola market could really move if there are any major surprises, Ferley said.

“The funds are still net short here in the canola,” he said. “So we could see some fireworks if we pop this thing up.”

Resistance continues to hold around the $499-$500 per tonne mark, according to Ferley. Line companies are being “lambasted” with sales as soon as they improve their basis by even a little bit, he said, so it’s clear farmers are sitting above the market waiting for prices they like.

The main volume continues to lie in the November/January spread.

“There’s very good activity here and the funds could potentially be back in on the buy side,” he said.

Harvest continues in Alberta and parts of Saskatchewan. The weather looks like it will continue to co-operate, Ferley said, so producers may be able to get the rest off.

“They have made some excellent progress,” he said. “We have seen exports kind of pick up in the weekly numbers and the crush jumped up last week.”

It’s becoming increasingly clear we are sitting on a record crop, he said, and farmers are also doing a good job of keeping product off the market.

“The concern going forward is, how do we market that crop?” he said. “If selling drops off and exports drop off then we’re going to have a winter of doldrums.”

Meanwhile, action in the Canadian dollar seems to have slowed down. The loonie remains stuck around the US80-cent mark, likely waiting for direction as to where fresh talks about the North American Free Trade Agreement will lead.

Many traders are already looking ahead to the crop in South America for the next major factor that could move canola.

“Will this dryness continue in northern Brazil?” said Ferley. “That could be the impetus to push things higher.”

— Dave Sims writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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“Most of the markets are still just killing time… everybody is just monitoring things to see where they go next,” said Ken Ball of PI Financial in Winnipeg.

Something will shift eventually, he said, but for the time being the uncertainty of U.S. soybean production was keeping some caution in the oilseeds.

While canola is stuck in a longer-term sideways range, the nearby trend has turned a bit higher as the market finds some support from cool and wet weather in Alberta.

“It’s still a little early to get too worried, but obviously this nasty weather has to go and they’ll need to get a good stretch of reasonable weather,” said Ball, adding that the majority of canola in central Alberta is still standing.

“They need another month of decent weather to get the job done.”

However, harvest operations are more advanced elsewhere, and canola yields were looking reasonably good overall.

Using a model-based approach, Statistics Canada pegged canola production at a record 19.7 million tonnes, and many industry participants are of the opinion that the actual crop could yet top 20 million.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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While the report is always taken lightly because it relies on month-old data, it still gives participants some sense of how the market is doing.

In the end, the agency’s prediction for the upcoming harvest was mostly in line with traders’ expectations. The agency pegged this year’s crop at 18.2 million tonnes, which was significantly lower than last year’s crop.

The front-month November contract suffered losses of $8.50 to dip below psychological support at $499.50 a tonne. The January contract posted a minor gain, though, rising $2.40.

The losses were mostly brought on by improving weather conditions in Western Canada, recent strength in the Canadian dollar and choppy action in Malaysian palm oil.

There are also comments by those in the trade that canola is getting expensive relative to other oilseeds.

It’s not clear whether StatsCan’s report really swung the market in any direction. However, what caught most people’s attention was the fact the agency raised last year’s production total to 19.6 million tonnes, up from 18.4 million.

“That should allay some fears about running out of canola,” said Ken Ball of PI Financial in Winnipeg.

Commercial supplies are still reasonably tight, though, and the stocks number may have to be revised in the near future, he said.

Much of the attention now is on the U.S. Midwest, which is expecting cooler weather next week, he said. In particular, a full moon is scheduled for Sept. 6.

“The word ‘frost’ has been in the air; there’s a cold dip coming,” he said. “It’s cool south of the Great Lakes and if any north winds come over that, it will get chilly.”

— Dave Sims writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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