Manitoba Transportation and Infrastructure’s Hydrologic Forecast Centre updated its spring flood outlook on April 11 to show increased flood risk in the Icelandic River and Fisher River basin.

Snow pack double the average

Snow surveys have come back with some of the highest melt potential in years. The snow water equivalent around Fisher River was measured at approximately 113 millimetres, double the long-term average and at least equal to levels observed in previous flood years.

Recent snowfall and anticipated late-spring runoff have brought a high risk of flooding to the Icelandic River, which could also be caused by ice jams.

Peak flows are expected to reach levels similar to those in 2014, but if the melt happens faster, flows could approach levels seen in 2022, which — bolstered by a line of Colorado lows that built up snow pack levels and complicated calving — were two feet higher than in 2014.

As a result, the province has arranged for tens of thousands of sandbags as well as volunteers to be sent to Peguis First Nation and surrounding communities.

In the Parkland, the province has flagged an increased risk of overland flooding as temperatures exceed 10 C this week.

“The elevated risk is due to significantly above‑normal snow pack, a delayed spring melt and an increased likelihood of rapid runoff combined with spring precipitation,” the latest flood outlook says.

Another storm coming?

A moderate flood risk remains for portions of the Red, Assiniboine, Souris, Saskatchewan and Carrot rivers. There is a low risk for tributaries of the Red and Assiniboine Rivers as well as the Winnipeg River basin in eastern Manitoba.

Parts of central Manitoba could see between 15-30 centimetres of snow on April 15, while southern Manitoba will see a thaw with high temperatures potentially reaching 16 C, said Environment and Climate Change Canada. However, that heat will be followed by rain showers the next day.

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During a recent Soy Canada webinar, industry representatives pointed to a roughly 70-cent-per-bushel difference between western Canadian soybeans and comparable U.S. supplies moving through Pacific Northwest export channels.

WHY IT MATTERS: Getting paid closer to full value for soybeans could make a meaningful difference to farm profitability.

In some cases, that gap shows up in stark terms and underlines its arbitrary nature.

Brian Innes, Soy Canada’s executive director, pointed to one producer farming on both sides of the Manitoba–North Dakota border who sees markedly different prices for soybeans grown only a short distance apart.

The determining factor is simply which side of the international boundary they are sold. That gap has become part of the industry’s broader argument that Canadian soybeans are not always being valued for what they are actually worth.

What’s behind the gap?

Much of the difference in price is said to be linked to protein.

Innes said western Canadian soybeans have long faced a reputation for lower and less stable protein than competing supplies. That affects how buyers view the crop before it ever reaches a vessel.

Soy Canada makes the case for looking at overall performance, rather than just one marker.

Lesley Nernberg, an animal nutritionist with Lighthouse Agri-Solutions, told webinar participants that crude protein, while still the main benchmark used in the market, does not tell the whole story when it comes to feed value.

“The difference between how nutritionists and purchasers think is potentially leaving a lot of money on the table for Canadian growers and processors,” he said.

Purchasers tend to focus on crude protein, moisture and other straightforward specs. Animal nutritionists, by contrast, are looking more closely at amino acids and energy — the components that determine how well a feed ingredient actually performs in a ration.

Nernberg argued those deeper measures can matter as much as protein. He pointed to U.S. and international work showing that amino acid availability, digestibility and sucrose levels can be attractive to customers.

“These start to create cost advantages for feed millers,” he said, adding northern-grown soybeans may offer nutritional benefits that are not being fully recognized.

Research is suggesting Canadian soybean meal may be more competitive on those deeper nutritional measures than systems based on crude protein alone indicate, said Nernberg. If that holds, not only is crude protein is an incomplete measure of value, but the market may be pricing Canadian soybeans on one measure, while end users are deriving value from another.

The challenge is getting the market to reflect that value.

Can better data close the gap?

Canada has far less publicly available compositional data on soybean meal than competitors such as the U.S., Brazil and Argentina. That means fewer Canadian comparisons in the literature and fewer tools to help buyers look past a simple protein number.

Innes said that is part of what Soy Canada is trying to address.

In a followup interview, he said there are really two parts to the issue. One is the actual quality and consistency of soybeans being delivered over time. The other is how the value of those soybeans is measured and understood in the market.

In other words, some of the discount comes from the reputation western Canadian soybeans have built over time. Some of it also comes from the fact that Canada has a thinner dataset to show what those beans are worth beyond crude protein.

That is why Soy Canada sees better data as part of the solution.

The organization itself does not directly fund research, but Innes said Canadian groups are building out Prairie-specific data, drawing in part on similar research in the northern U.S. Soy Canada has been working to connect different parts of the value chain and identify where new information could be most useful.

Innes pointed to the role of Manitoba Pulse and Soybean Growers, among others, in supporting work that could help better define the value of Canadian soybeans and communicate that to export customers.

Better data will not erase the price gap on its own, he said, but it could help ensure Canadian soybeans are being valued more accurately.

What it means on the farm

For farmers, the more immediate question is what that kind of gap means on the ground.

Darren Bond, a farm business management specialist with Manitoba Agriculture, said the difference is far from trivial.

At typical Prairie soybean yields, a 70-cent-per-bushel price gap works out to roughly $30 an acre.

“That’s definitely nothing to sneeze at,” Bond said.

In Manitoba’s latest cost-of-production guide, soybeans were the only major crop projected to show a positive return when fully costed, at roughly $2 an acre.

Add another $30 an acre on top of that, Bond said, and the picture changes quickly.

“That $30 an acre is pure profit.”

Bond said soybeans already benefit from lower fertilizer costs than crops like wheat or canola because they typically require little or no nitrogen. That has been one of the biggest reasons they looked more attractive this year. Higher yields, stronger genetics and better management have also helped improve the crop’s economics in Manitoba.

A better price would only add to that advantage.

Would that mean a major jump in acres? Possibly.

A stronger price signal would clearly improve the crop’s competitiveness, especially in a province where soybeans have already become an important part of the farm business mix. But Bond said there are other considerations, including freight, weather, rotation and market access. He also noted western Canadian soybeans are still relatively new in the broader market sense. Many Manitoba growers have only been producing them for 15 to 20 years, which means the crop still lacks some of the long track record and market familiarity seen in longer-established U.S. growing regions.

That relative newness feeds back into the same problem Nernberg identified: fewer years of data, fewer established expectations and fewer tools to show buyers what Canadian soybeans can deliver.

For Soy Canada, that is where the opportunity lies.

“The goal is to narrow the gap between the actual value for the animal and what customers perceive that value to be,” said Innes.

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Yi Zeng, senior director for Asia and global commodities at the Saskatchewan Trade and Export Partnership (STEP), said the area has high population and strong purchasing power.

China and India each have markets of 1.4 billion people, and 12 other major countries have about 600 million combined.

Zeng said the markets are there, as long as exporters know what they are getting into.

WHY IT MATTERS: Canada exported about $685 million worth of organic products in 2023 and continues to seek additional markets.

He includes Japan, South Korea and Taiwan as “Tier 1” countries because they have organic equivalency agreements with Canada. However, in South Korea, that includes only retail packaged foods and not commodities.

Japan presents an interesting proposition for organic exporters because of the health-conscious, aging population and the concept of living an organic life.

“They’re not only eating organic, they use everything organic,” he told the recent Advancing Organics conference in Regina.

They favour clothing made from organic cotton and silk, for example.

“Organic grain and organic pulses and also the organic ingredients for bakery purposes are the major products we can sell into Japan,” Zeng said.

Consumer cultures differ

However, he said exporters should keep in mind that Japanese consumers shop differently than those in North America. They shop daily after work instead of stocking up for a week or more. Packaging requirements are different because the purchases are carried home.

Honey is a good example.

In Canada, someone might buy a kilogram or more of honey. In Japan, “they are packing honey like we do cosmetics,” he said.

Small packages of 30 to 100 grams are better suited to the market. Similar packages would be required in Singapore and Hong Kong, he said.

Japan does not accept flax for human consumption.

Regardless of whether the flax is organic or conventional, the genetically modified content has to be zero. Japan also requires cyanide and glyphosate levels lower than 10 parts per million, Zeng said.

“All naturally grown flax in Saskatchewan, in Canada, cannot meet this safety standard,” he said.

Roasting the flax can be a way around this because it lowers those levels, but most imported flax is used for industrial purposes.

Hemp is another product to be cautious about when exporting.

Only Japan and South Korea accept it under their own national standards.

To meet Japanese specifications, the seeds must be treated so they don’t germinate. In South Korea, hemp seeds are considered a super food, but they must be hulled to be accepted.

Zeng said organic wheat, oats and barley are widely imported. Barley tea is popular, and both Japan and South Korea look for an organic pearl barley to make this product.

South Korea does not accept wild rice or quinoa and considers them both rice, even though neither of them are.

It also has a honey import quota of 200 tonnes from Canada, and Zeng said he knows of one major company that takes the majority of that quota. It would be difficult for an individual organic honey producer to gain much of the market.

Both countries have free trade agreements with Canada and rely on it for food security, he added.

Taiwan does not accept hemp, and none of the other countries aside from Japan and South Korea do.

Other markets, different challenges

Zeng considers the two city state countries of Singapore and Hong Kong as the second tier. Singapore has about five million people and Hong Kong seven million, and neither has farmland to produce what they need.

They will accept Canadian organic certification, although they don’t have official agreements, he said.

“Because they are more like cities, they are more interested in retail packaged organic products or the ingredients which they can use for bakery purposes,” he said.

Organic demand is small, and pretty much any product can enter except hemp.

Tier 3 markets include China and South Korea for commodities. Products have to be recertified to enter these markets.

Zeng said China should not be ignored because it already buys a lot of organic products from Saskatchewan, particularly for making plant proteins for beverages, starch and ingredients for the health industry.

He classifies emerging markets as Tier 4, saying the organic market hasn’t reached the same level as other countries in the region due to economic levels. These countries, which include India, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Philippines, Bangladesh, Malaysia and Pakistan, need food and they aren’t necessarily picky when it comes to conventional or organic.

Zeng encouraged potential exporters to participate in trade missions with STEP and said the organization can help with things such as paperwork.

He also said they can meet international buyers at the Saskatchewan-Asia Trade Conference in Regina in September.

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“The drones, especially these agriculture drones, provide a very rare opportunity for young folks,” said Steve Li, a professor and drone researcher with Auburn University in Alabama.

Embracing agricultural technology, including drones, is a way young people can stay connected to the farm, he said.

“I see that happening all over the place. It gives young folks a chance to be entrepreneurial and fight back against this social trend of leaving the farm. This is something that is very rare and valuable,” said Li at the conference, where most of the 190 registrants were young.

Low barrier to entry

While rules around spraying chemicals from drones differ between Canada and the United States, Li said that when Canadian regulations change to allow drone herbicide spraying, it will give young people a way to start an agricultural business without a large cash outlay.

“Some kids even finishing high school can start their own business with less than $150,000, be legal and have a quick ROI. Most young operators I know were able to pay off the debt and the equipment and start to make money after one season.”

A traditional sprayer can cost $750,000 or more, compared to about $50,000 for an entry-level drone — an investment many young people can afford.

Young voices at the conference

Brothers Todd, 22, and Brayden, 26, Fraser of Churchbridge, Sask., came to the first annual conference to learn about quickly changing drone technology and how they can use it on their farm and for a business venture.

“They are a much more approachable price point versus million dollar planes,” said Brayden.

“If you can do it yourself, you can save money,” added Todd, who believes more pre-set applications and settings will make spray drones easy to use.

Elron Davis, 16, of Grovedale, Alta., has been flying drones since he was eight. At 13, a YouTube video of spray drones caught his interest, but regulations, licensing and cost gave him pause. Now he is helping out at the conference trade show, trying to absorb as much information as he can.

“It is aviation and I like aviation a lot and it is connected to farming and I grew up with farming.”

Tyler Hatton of Blenheim, Ont., left an 18-year career as a salesman with John Deere to jump into the drone industry.

“This is the next generation’s business opportunity. The cost of entry is very low compared to hard iron or traditional methods of spraying,” said Hatton of Drone Spray Canada.

“The young kids are going to have a way to get into agriculture, make some money, be effective and keep moving forward,” said Hatton.

“Every single person you talk to is excited about the opportunity, where it can go, what the new things they can do, how to do things differently. There has been no negative talk. It has been all positive.”

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“Cellar Insights helps potato growers, processors and storage operators minimize loss and detect early signs of spoilage, excess shrink and poor fry colour,” he said during a presentation at the Results Driven Agriculture Research (RDAR) showcase in Edmonton.

Long-term potato storage is known in the industry as “the second season” — and it determines how long potatoes remain usable for processing. In Manitoba, there have been relatively recent examples at the start of this decade of years when storage problems led to significant economic losses for growers.

Start of Cellar Insights

Co-founder Ross Culbertson, a sixth-generation potato grower from Florenceville, N.B., saw heavy investment on the crop side to boost yields every year. But once potatoes go into storage, even in a good facility, about four per cent of yield is lost to respiration. Factor in rot, quality and disease issues, and losses climb substantially.

“We thought there was an opportunity there. Hence, Cellar Insights was born. We’re looking to empower growers and processors to reduce post-harvest losses, strengthen food security and boost resource efficiency through actionable insights. Our objective is to maximize the value for the grower, reduce the risk of the supply chain losses for the processor, and ultimately run storage as a competitive advantage,” said Sydoryk.

Cellar Insights was founded in 2023 through Carrot Ventures, a Calgary-based venture studio for agtech. The company has secured grants from RDAR and other organizations.

“We’ve raised a substantial amount of money that we can take this business forward with a specific focus on long term storage,” said Sydoryk.

Global post-harvest losses exceed US$100 billion across multiple crops.

Storing potatoes for processing

Cellar Insights focuses on improving storage for processed potatoes. Losses can be caused by rot, disease, shrink, quality degradation and sprouting.

In Alberta, Canada’s top potato-producing province, about 60 per cent of potatoes end up processed. French fries make up 60 per cent of that, with another 20 per cent going to chips.

Storage quality matters because processors need a precise balance of sugars, taste and colour.

“McDonald’s is adamant that a bouquet of french fries has got to look special,” he said.

Storage facilities around Lethbridge and Taber, many about 20 years old, line the highways. Potatoes are loaded into dome-shaped bins, filled to within five or six feet of the top, with dirt floors and culverts for airflow.

What happens in storage

A typical bin is about 200 feet by 50 feet and 18 feet deep. Large fans on one side push air through floor slots, while a cooling wall on the opposite side lets growers reduce temperature. A humidification wall introduces moisture. A mezzanine lets growers walk the pile for visual checks.

“Ultimately, the age-old process of checking on the bin is walking it daily and checking if a pile is depleted. When I look at it from the top, if I look at the cross connect or cross tubes for air flow, do I see any sort of liquid coming out of the pile?”

A smell test remains one of the simplest ways to detect rot.

Potatoes need to be stored long-term to supply factories that run year-round. They should be at or below 13 C coming out of the ground — warmer harvest temperatures in southern Alberta can accelerate rot risk.

After loading, potatoes go through drying, pre-cooling and treatment stages to bring temperatures down. Ideal storage temperature sits at eight to 10 C, or lower for seed potatoes, pushing them into dormancy.

Three factors are monitored throughout: humidity, carbon dioxide and temperature. All affect quality, and growers need to maintain conditions over months to meet the needs of chip and french fry processors.

How Cellar Insights works

The company’s platform monitors temperature and humidity against thresholds set by the grower, issuing proactive alerts if conditions — including carbon dioxide levels — are exceeded.

“Early detection tracking abroad is something we’re focused on now, and lastly, we’ve introduced trending reports within the platform, so you can see things that happen over time, whether it’s the last 24 hours, last seven days, last 30 days, compared across the various units,” he said.

Cellar Insights uses low-cost, wireless, battery-operated sensors placed directly into storage bins. A sensor hub in the facility backhauls data via cellular signal to the cloud, giving growers remote visibility. External temperatures are also measured.

Predicting rot with machine learning

Some newer facilities already have built-in sensors. Cellar Insights is layering machine learning and artificial intelligence on top to predict early rot and spoilage.

RDAR funding will support an expansion of the rot-sensing work the company began a year ago.

“Our objective is to put 100 bins in play with sensors and another 20 or 15 bins with additional gas and volatile sensor measurements,” he said.

The company is testing combinations of sensor types. Early detection of deterioration lets producers choose mitigation strategies — such as reducing humidity — to protect more of the crop.

The next step is applying existing collected data to a machine learning model that can predict rot risk potential in any given storage facility.

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In 2024, the MFGA welcomed the Senate report that called for a long-term soil health strategy for the nation, along with soil being named a national asset and designating a soil health advocate. Senator Rob Black, who has outspokenly pushed soil health on Parliament Hill and elsewhere, singled out the development of the strategy among 25 recommendations outlined in the report.

A little under two years later, there’s a promise from Ottawa to make that proposed strategy a reality.

On March 26, the federal government announced plans toward development of a national agricultural soil health strategy.

“It’s a critical time that we’re in, relevant to soil erosion, climate change, and everything that we’re doing with technology and innovation is to ensure that soil remains where it is,” federal Agriculture Minister Heath MacDonald said.

“(The strategy) is going to put an element of integrity on any research that’s being done in the future and hopefully that research can coincide with what we’re seeing here today.”

Manitoba support

It’s a “wonderful announcement,” MFGA executive director Duncan Morrison said.

“MFGA applauds the engagement of the strategy,” he said. “Of course, as with everything, the proof will be in the pudding as to how this is all mobilized, but on Day 1, it’s a great day.”

The organization, Morrison said, has thrown its weight behind the development of a strategy, both among its communications and its support of the Soil Conservation Council of Canada (SCCC) — another group that has pushed hard for a strategy, and that the government says will be tapped for input as the strategy is developed. He also pointed to letters of support and congratulations they have sent to Black and Senator Paula Simons, who also helped drive the 2024 Senate soil report.

Morrison further threw kudos to Manitoba’s Keystone Agricultural Producers (KAP).

KAP has helped get Manitoba farmers a seat at the table on the issue, he noted, adding the MFGA has since met with KAP and hopes to see outreach to the MFGA as “a farmer-focused group that has been pushing the soil health narrative hard for the last decade.”

“These things take time towards sorting out, and we sure hope that the regen ag practices and mindsets on our MFGA farmers’ farms are being valued and included here as part of the soil health solution,” Morrison said.

Soil health bill

The strategy announcement dovetails with gains for Black’s Bill S-230, the National Strategy for Soil Health Act, which closely follows the report’s 25 recommendations. That bill also passed in the Senate March 26, and MacDonald said Bill S-230 will inform the strategy.

During Bill S-230’s third reading, Black told the Senate chamber it was bolstering to know “the government not only supports the bill but is ready to move forward before it is legislated.”

Reading the AAFC’s intention to develop a national soil health strategy during the third reading showed the value of the Senate, Black said. “It also put (the government) on record, on notice that we’re watching,” Black said.

According to Black, work on the strategy to safeguard Canadian soil could begin as early as April and be completed and officially launched by December 2027.

Collaboration with farmers, industry pledged

Ideally, Black said, the national strategy will avoid a one-size-fits-all approach. It will include educational support, financial support, peer-to-peer networks and a position for a national soil health advocate. He noted Australia’s soil advocates have been very effective in promoting the adoption of soil health practices, but acknowledged the position comes with a cost.

Collaboration will play a key role in developing the strategy, with input from the SCCC, farmers, the agriculture industry, Indigenous communities, provinces and territories and related ministries.

For the MFGA’s part, Morrison said they are “determined to contribute and advance soil health awareness and encourage on-farm uptake of BMPs (best management practices).

“We have been pushing for exactly this type of structure, soil strategy and leadership for years,” he said.

Healthy soils important for all Canadians: Kruszel

The in-depth research by Black and the Senate committee on agriculture and forestry into Canada’s soil has highlighted the significance of healthy soil and the threats it faces, said Alan Kruszel, SCCC’s eastern producer director.

“Healthy soils are so important for producers as well as for all Canadians. Healthy soils provide the majority of the food we eat,” he said. “Soils help to purify our water, to clean our air and provide habitats for all kinds of life.”

Kruszel said the agriculture sector provides one in nine jobs nationally. Investment in soil health is ongoing through research, farm organizations, input suppliers and other groups to support the adoption of sustainable on-farm practices.

“Our intention through the national soil health strategy is to optimize those investments through collaborations,” he said. “And collectively working to identify gaps in research, measurement, education and extension, and of course, resources while establishing priority actions that we can all work on.”

— With files from Diana Martin

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While nitrogen fertilizer and diesel fuel are the big-ticket items getting the most attention, the cost increases will extend much further.

Farmers are considering various strategies to minimize the economic damage for this year and the years to come.

Fortunately, farmers in Western Canada had most of their nitrogen fertilizer locked in ahead of the dramatic escalation caused by the war in the Middle East. What isn’t widely appreciated is the war’s impact on other fertilizer types, including phosphate.

Breaking down fertilizer impacts

Mario Gaudet, a senior account manager with Alberta-based BiziSul, which supplies elemental sulfur, used a recent webinar hosted by Dan Aberhart to explain the sources of sulfur and the role it plays in all sorts of manufactured products.

Sulfur is a byproduct of oil refining, which accounts for 80 per cent of the world supply. About 40 per cent comes from the Middle East, and, like nitrogen, was blocked for weeks at the Strait of Hormuz.

Gaudet says that over the last year-and-a-half, the price of elemental sulfur has increased from US$70 per tonne to around $580.

Sulfur is needed to produce sulfuric acid used in battery production as well as the refining of lithium and many other metals. Sulfuric acid is also a necessary ingredient to turn phosphate rock into phosphate fertilizer.

Monoammonium phosphate, 11-52-0, was already expensive and hasn’t escalated like nitrogen. However, with the high cost of sulfur and the high cost of the nitrogen component in the fertilizer, it’s difficult to imagine MAP prices coming down anytime soon.

Nitrogen strategies

What should the strategy be next summer and fall if the price of urea is still $1,000 or more per tonne? Should you plan to stock up for 2027? Will the ceasefire hold? Will fertilizer manufacturing and distribution be catching up?

Nitrogen is usually less expensive in the summer and fall.

While nitrogen stabilizers cost money, more producers might now consider using a stabilizer and spreading fertilizer in the fall.

The cost of a stabilizer is often relatively small compared to the usual price increase ahead of spring. Applying in the fall also means you don’t have to store the product.

While producers are used to pricing fertilizer in advance of seeding and most have a significant amount of on-farm storage, diesel storage is a mixed bag.

Some producers have significant storage and try to time purchases to save money. Others just get regular bulk deliveries as needed.

While nitrogen tends to follow a predictable price pattern most years, diesel fuel would seem to be more erratic.

However, following the onset of the war, a spike in prices would have been a reasonable expectation. Those with the storage to stock up saved a lot of money.

Another advantage to having extensive diesel fuel storage is the ability to obtain a lower price for taking an entire tanker load at a time. Of course, buying a large amount at the wrong time would lock in an even-larger loss.

The high cost of petroleum will manifest itself in the prices for crop protection products.

Yes, many chemistries are off patent and generics have decreased price levels, but it’s now more expensive to manufacture all petroleum-based products. Even the plastic jugs cost more. Buying in advance was a good strategy.

With the high input costs and outlook for compressed margins, producers are unlikely to be bullish on equipment upgrades. That’s one area where they can exercise more discretion.

Kevin Hursh is an agricultural journalist, consultant and farmer. He can be reached by email at kevin@hursh.ca.

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In opening remarks, chair Rick Préjet said 2025 had been marked by “uncertainty, successes and optimism,” while highlighting the importance of export markets.

Those themes carried through panel discussions led by general manager Cam Dahl, who said Manitoba is particularly exposed because of its dependence on export markets.

“Trade really has become a key focus for Manitoba Pork,” he said, noting about 90 per cent of Manitoba production is exported either as live animals or pork products.

The discussion also swirled around tariffs and the increasingly protectionist tone of global trade. Canadian Pork Council executive director Steven Heckbert noted voluntary country-of-origin labelling (vCOOL) was introduced by Democrats, adding that both major U.S. parties have been moving in the same direction.

“We’re fighting a headwind of increased protectionism,” he said.

Trade concerns were also explored in a one-on-one discussion with Manitoba’s senior representative to the U.S., Richard Madan, who said that despite the rhetoric, there is still broad bipartisan support for smooth trade relations in agricultural states.

“Republicans, Democrats and stakeholders all understand the importance of integrated supply chains, and how Canada is part of a strong food supply system,” he said.

Biosecurity concerns also remain front and centre

Biosecurity was the other major focus. Speakers pointed to African swine fever preparedness, ongoing PED control efforts, wild pig eradication and the continued risk posed by senecavirus A. Recent low disease levels in Manitoba were attributed to stronger biosecurity, surveillance and coordination across the sector.

Dahl said protecting the sector depends in part on decisions made at the farm level.

“Don’t ship sick animals,” he said. “It’s not just your farm that you put at risk. It’s the entire Manitoba pork sector.”

The meeting also included discussion of Manitoba Pork’s public outreach and right-to-farm efforts. On the governance side, Margaret Rempel retired as board member at large and was replaced by Harv Toews.

Full coverage of the Manitoba Pork AGM will appear in the next edition of the Manitoba Co-operator.

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Oilseed crushers in Canada also depend on the U.S. for sales of canola meal. In 2024, 66 per cent of canola meal exports were shipped south of the border.

With the U.S. market worth $5.7 billion in canola sales last year, Canadian growers and industry leaders will be carefully watching the upcoming review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement.

On March 5, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) announced the first round of bilateral discussions to prepare for the joint review of CUSMA.

The discussions were between Mexico and the U.S.; Canada wasn’t involved.

This tactic, of talking to Mexico and Canada separately, is possibly how the U.S. will approach the review, said Patrick Leblond, a professor at the University of Ottawa’s Graduate School of Public and International Affairs.

“There’s the (option) we renew CUSMA, but the U.S. negotiates bilaterally with Canada, bilaterally with Mexico, and then they try to fit that within the existing CUSMA.”

Another option would be for the countries to make bilateral deals outside of CUSMA, Leblond said.

Implications for farm futures

Many analysts, including Leblond, are deeply worried about the trade deal and potential outcomes. The Americans could pull out of CUSMA this summer and basically say the deal is invalid, he said.

“The Trump administration ultimately cannot be trusted. … We can negotiate, we can try to come to a deal, but we have no guarantee whether that deal will be respected.”

Others, including leaders in the canola industry, are more hopeful. U.S. farm organizations are strong supporters of the trade deal, and their lobbying could be a difference maker in Washington.

“We see really positive support from agriculture, on both sides of the border, for the benefits of CUSMA,” said Brittany Wood, ‪senior manager for transportation and trade policy with the Canadian Canola Growers Association.

Farm-level support is helpful, but there are also established supply chains between canola crushing plants in Western Canada and users of canola oil in the U.S.

Canola ripples and waves

Mondelez International, a food manufacturer with headquarters in Chicago, is a major buyer of canola oil for its line of snack foods, including Ritz crackers.

That’s just one example. Canola oil is the No. 2 edible oil in the U.S. market, says the Canola Council of Canada.

“We’ve traded canola oil into the United States, for decades … bottled oil, packaged food, restaurant use.” Wood said.

There’s also demand from the U.S. biofuel industry, which relies on canola oil to produce biodiesel and renewable diesel.

If there was a disruption in canola oil exports because Trump crushed CUSMA, the American market would be extremely difficult to replace.

Domestic surge

However, there are positive developments within Canada. Domestic use of canola oil has been increasing and is expected to climb in future years.

“In 2021, we had about one million tonnes of canola oil staying here in Canada,” Wood said.

Last year, the amount was around 1.6 million tonnes, thanks to additional demand from biofuel production.

Wood hopes that trend continues, but it will require regulations that encourage biofuel production and use in Canada.

“That is where we see the growth opportunity.”

Meanwhile, there may be room to rebuild canola oil exports to China. From 2016 to 2020, canola crushers exported 700,000 to 1.1 million tonnes annually. Since 2022, volumes have dropped to around 120,000 tonnes a year. With the federal government working to renew its relationship with Beijing, restoring that market could help offset reliance on the U.S. — though that prospect remains uncertain.

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Almost all agricultural commodities are facing existential threats. War has triggered supply chain disruptions and is pushing up input costs. Trade within North America is suddenly uncertain. Protectionism is on the rise around the world, with Chinese tariffs on pork and Europe’s non-tariff trade barriers being two leading examples.

Pulling in the same direction

Agriculture should be taking a “whole plate” approach to addressing these issues and not trying to fix things one commodity at a time. If the industry can step out of commodity silos and regional perspectives, we can not only address these threats, but realize the vision of making Canada a global food powerhouse.

There are positive steps in this direction, but no standard practice. The Canadian Federation of Agriculture has brought together a coalition under the banner “Let’s Grow Canada” to support policies that will encourage investment in research and development. CropLife Canada’s “Grow Canada Strong” initiative has similar objectives. Farm Credit Canada has launched a “Let’s Grow Canada” website with the intent of showcasing the stories behind Canadian farmers and food producers.

Canada currently ranks last in ag research investment among the top seven countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. This must change if we are to weather the geopolitical storms the country is facing. Canada is at an inflection point where agriculture has an opportunity to present governments with a vision for attracting private sector research and development investment rather than just waiting for public sector solutions.

A united front on CUSMA

The review of our most important trade agreement, CUSMA, is underway. The implications for Canadian agriculture are massive. The aggressive shift in U.S. foreign and trade policies over the past years, coming from both political parties, clearly show us that the renegotiation will be difficult.

All of export agriculture needs to come together to develop a strategic plan on how we approach these negotiations. We need to be prepared to deliver real-time advice to our negotiating team that is consistent and united. We need to be prepared to tell our governments things they might not want to hear. We need to have systematic outreach to our partners in the U.S. commodity groups, who cannot afford to “go it alone” and hope for positive outcomes.

Developing this united front requires leaders who are willing to take some risks and step outside of the comfort zone that operating in commodity and regional silos offer.

Immigration: an agriculture solution

Labour is another key policy issue that requires a common front if Canada is to become an international food powerhouse. Almost all sectors of agriculture face labour shortages. New Canadians are an integral part of meeting these needs. Immigration policies in Canada are being questioned due to housing and service shortages in our major cities, but what is needed in Toronto, Vancouver or Montreal is not what is needed in rural Canada and at our processing plants.

Agriculture needs a unified voice to tell the story about how stable jobs for new Canadians in agriculture and food production are building communities across the country. Rather than short soundbites from political leaders, we need thoughtful immigration and labour policies targeting regional, and sectoral, needs.

The Canadian economy is facing undeniable threats due to geopolitical instability and rising protectionism. Agriculture and food production in Canada can be key in mitigating these threats. To seize the opportunity, we need to present governments with united and consistent policy solutions. Agriculture needs to lead the way rather than wait for others to present solutions to us.

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