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Weather models point to a fall heat wave

Issued: Monday, Oct. 13, 2014 – Covering: Oct. 15 - Oct. 22, 2014

The long weekend turned out to be a little nicer than expected as the large Pacific low ended up staying off shore, with only a few pieces of energy moving through our region.

Overall, the forecast for the next couple of weeks looks to be pretty good. Confidence is actually fairly high as the weather models have been relatively consistent from day to day with their forecasts. This forecast period will start off mild, when an area of low pressure pulls up nice mild air as it moves in from the West. This low will move through on Thursday and Friday and it looks like most of the precipitation with this system will be in central and northern regions of Manitoba.

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Prairie weather map for October
precipitation map

Things will start to clear out Saturday, but it will be a little on the cool side as we’ll see a fairly strong northerly flow behind the low. A ridge of arctic high pressure is then forecast to begin building southeastward starting on Sunday. This should bring us mainly sunny skies on Sunday and Monday, with high temperatures expected to be around the middle of the usual temperature range for this time of the year.

As the high drifts to our southeast, it’s forecast to strengthen and stall out over the Great Lakes. This will place us in a warm southerly flow as the arctic air modifies and warm air is pulled up from the southern U.S. It looks like it will be sunny for most or all of next week, with temperatures getting warmer each day. I wouldn’t be surprised if highs end up exceeding the top end of the usual temperature range for this time of the year by next Tuesday or Wednesday.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 4 to 16 C; lows, -5 to 4 C. Probability of precipitation falling as snow: 25 per cent.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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