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Pattern trying to transition to winter

Issued: Monday, Nov. 3, 2014 – Covering: Nov. 5 – Nov. 12, 2014

This map shows the total amount of precipitation compared to average that has fallen for September and most of October across the Prairies. Looking at the map you can see that the north-central Prairies, stretching from just west of Edmonton eastwards to around Swan River has been dry with some areas of Saskatchewan seeing less than 40 per cent of average. In contrast, the southern part of the Prairies, stretching from southern Alberta into southeastern Saskatchewan have been fairly wet, with the region around Moose Jaw reporting over 200 per cent of average.

Last week’s Arctic high built in as expected, but brought slightly cooler temperatures than expected, with overnight lows dropping into the minus teens late last week. The strong area of low pressure also developed to our west as predicted, but fortunately for us, it took a more northerly route and brought nice mild weather to our region to end the weekend.

Confidence in this forecast period is not that high as the weather models all seem to be having trouble coming into agreement on just what will happen over the next 10 days or so. Currently, it looks like a large storm system moving up the East Coast during the week will merge with another area of low pressure moving across northern Canada. This low will then spin around Hudson Bay over the weekend and slide to the south and east early next week.

What this means for us is that we should see fairly quiet weather for the first part of this forecast period as high pressure lingers across our region. High temperatures should be around the +5 to +7 C mark, with overnight lows around -4 C. Over the weekend it looks like the deepening low over Hudson Bay will push through a cold front, which will usher in the coldest weather so far this fall. We could see some flurries along the back side of this low on Monday and Tuesday, but at this time it doesn’t look like anything more than a light dusting.

Arctic high pressure is then forecasted to move in around the middle of the week, which will clear out the skies, but keep temperatures on the cool side. Fortunately, it looks like this high will slide quickly to the south, meaning a return to a southerly flow and some milder weather later in the week.

Usual temperature range for this period

Highs: -3 to 7 C Lows: -13 to -3 C

Probability of precipitation falling as snow: 85 per cent

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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