Weather: Stuck in a hot, dry pattern

Forecast covering the period from July 21 to 28

This map shows the forecasted mean daily temperatures across North America for the weeks of July 16 to 24 (first map) and July 24 to August 1 (second map). As you can see, it looks to be hot with mean daily temperatures forecasted to be in the 24 to 28 C range, about 4 to 6 C above average.

If this is not a persistent pattern, I do not know what is. Let’s see, the week starts off nice, with temperatures in the low to mid-20s along with the odd widely scattered shower or thunderstorm. Then by mid- to late week, the temperatures jump back up into the low to possibly mid-30s, with those temperatures lasting right through the weekend — and then the pattern repeats itself.

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but this pattern does not look like it will end any time soon. The one piece of good news is that for a while, it was looking like we could be facing a record-breaking heat wave, but the weather models have been pulling back on the intensity of the heat. I just hope they are right.

To begin this forecast period, we will see a building ridge of high pressure to our southwest along with a relatively cool surface high sitting to our northeast. This will result in mainly sunny skies and warm temperatures. The ridge to our southwest will shunt any storm systems to our north, but the high to our northeast will then try to deflect these systems back to the southeast. While we could get some good rains from this type of setup, only a few scattered showers or thunderstorms are expected, with best chances being on Thursday and then again on Saturday. Daytime highs will be pushing the 30 C mark on most days with overnight lows dropping into the mid-teens. If, and this is a big “if,” the northeastern high is a little stronger than expected, then temperatures might be 4 to 5 C cooler. Unfortunately, the opposite could occur, which would push temperatures up by similar amounts.

Next week (July 26 to 30) looks to be much the same as ridging continues to dominate our weather, with weak storm systems only bringing slight chances for rain. Temperatures will continue to be warm/hot with most days hovering around the 30 C mark.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 23 to 31 C; lows, 12 to 18 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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