Weather pleasant but a little fragile

Issued: Monday, Jan. 12, 2015 – Covering: Jan. 14 – Jan. 21, 2015

troposphere weather map

The start of this forecast period will see the last in a series of cold arctic highs push off to the east, which should result in milder conditions for the remainder of this forecast period and hopefully beyond.

The best way to describe this forecast period is fragile. That is, while there are a couple of large weather features that should strongly influence our weather over the next week or so, they are both off to our west. This will lead to weak systems affecting our region, and weak systems can be difficult to forecast as their weak nature allows them to be easily influenced by other weather systems. So overall confidence in this forecast is not that high.

For most of this forecast period we’ll be dealing with a large area of low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska, along with a building ridge of high pressure over the West Coast of the U.S. This should keep the arctic air trapped in the Arctic and any significant moisture and storm systems well to our south and east. It looks as if we’ll see a series of weak lows slide down from the northwest over the next week. The first of these lows should slide by to our northeast on Wednesday, bringing with it a few flurries along with milder temperatures. A second and slightly stronger low will slide through over the weekend. Temperatures will continue to be mild ahead of this low on Friday and Saturday, with highs staying in the -3 to -5 C range.

Slightly cooler air will move in behind this low on Sunday and Monday, but highs should still be in the -7 to -10 C range, which isn’t too bad for this time of the year. The fragile pattern looks to continue into next week with high pressure dominating for the most part. Should this pan out it will make for some really nice winter weather, with highs running in the -5 to -10 C range, overnight lows around -15 to -20 C, and relatively light winds. So get out and enjoy!

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -22 to -5 C; lows, -33 to -16 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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