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Weather models still having trouble

We have been stuck in a split flow for several weeks now and this has kept our weather relatively quiet. The southern stream has kept any significant moisture from making its way northward, so any storm systems tracking along the northern stream have not been very strong or able to produce much in the way of snow.

It looks like this split flow will last for another week or so before we see a shift in the pattern with the two streams merging. This means we will see relatively mild temperatures for most of this forecast period, before cooler temperatures move in around the middle of the month.

Late this week and to start the weekend, two weak systems are expected to push through our region — one to the north and one to the south. We could see some occasional flurries or light snow starting on Thursday and lasting until Saturday. Along with the snow we will also see slowly cooling temperatures.

The forecast for next week is a little iffy right now as the weather models are having trouble coming to an agreement on how things might play out. Currently the models show us under a northwesterly flow. This means we will probably see a mix of sun and clouds along with fairly cool temperatures. The models do show a system coming in off the Pacific northwest and diving southeastward across the Prairies during the second half of next week. If this does pan out we could see a couple centimetres of snow as it quickly pushes through.

Looking further ahead, the models are bouncing back and forth, between bringing in more cold air and a significant warming spell. I guess we will have to wait and see.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -23 to -6 C; lows, -34 to -15 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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